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ANALYSIS

ELECTION

Spain’s Socialists will lose support whoever they back: analysts

Spain's Socialists hold the key to the next government after an inconclusive election but whether they reach a deal with the conservatives or team up with the anti-austerity party Podemos, they risk losing support, analysts say.

Spain's Socialists will lose support whoever they back: analysts
Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez faces a tough choice. Photo: Pedro Armestre/AFP
The party, led since 2014 by telegenic former university professor Pedro Sanchez, came in second in last weekend's election, winning 22 percent of the vote and 90 seats in the 350-seat parliament.
 
The Socialists lost ground to far-left Podemos, which was founded just two years ago and came in a close third with 20.7 percent support garnering 69 seats.
   
Despite a result that ranks as their worst ever, the Socialists are in a position to decide if acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's conservative Popular Party (PP) can stay in power.
   
The PP received the most votes of any party but it fell well short of an absolute majority in parliament, taking 123 seats, and will need the support of the Socialists to govern in a minority.
   
But Sanchez has said the Socialists will not support any effort by Rajoy to stay on in his post via a coalition or a minority government.
   
“We will vote against the continuity of the Popular Party at the helm of the government, with Mariano Rajoy as prime minister,” he said Wednesday after holding talks with Rajoy.
   
Analysts said allowing the PP to stay in power could alienate left-wing voters who oppose austerity measures introduced by Rajoy in response to Spain's financial crisis.
   
“It would be political suicide,” said Anton Losada, political science professor at the University of Santiago de Compostela in northwestern Spain.
   
He recalled that the Socialists focused their campaign on the need to “send Rajoy home”.
   
Forming a pact with the PP could see the Socialists suffer the same fate as its Greek counterpart Pasok, which saw its support plunge after it joined a coalition led by the conservative New Democracy in 2012.
   
“If they pact with the PP it would be very complicated” for Sanchez because “the base of parties is always more radical” then its leadership, said Narciso Michavila, who heads GAD3 polling firm.
 
With left-wing parties holding the balance of power in the new parliament, Sanchez said the Socialists would try to form a government themselves by joining forces with Podemos and other smaller regional nationalist parties.
   
That outcome would mirror recent events in neighbouring Portugal where the ruling conservatives won an October election but fell to a Socialist government backed by leftist parties just days later.
   
But analysts warned that teaming up with Podemos also has its risks. Podemos is the only national party to back an independence referendum in the wealthy northeastern region of Catalonia, where secessionist parties have
an absolute majority in the regional parliament.
   
It has said support for such a referendum is “indispensible” for any deal with another party.
   
If Sanchez accepts this condition, he faces the wrath of Socialist party barons who are fiercely opposed to Catalonia's separatist drive, such as Susana Diaz, the head of the regional government of the southern region of
Andalusia, a Socialist bastion.
   
“We can't negotiate with those that propose breaking up Spain,” she said during an interview broadcast Friday on radio Cadena Ser.
   
Podemos's demand on the Catalonia referendum was “specially designed to sink Pedro Sanchez” because if he agrees it would lead to the “collapse of the Socialists in Andalusia”, Michavila said.
   
King Felipe VI is responsible for nominating a prime minister after the new Parliament convenes on January 13.
   
If no party leader manages to be approved by lawmakers as prime minister within two months of a first vote of confidence, fresh elections will have to be called.
   
Podemos, which has shown no rush to discuss a coalition with Sanchez, could surpass the Socialists if another election is held and become the main opposition party, said political analyst Josep Ramoneda.
   
“If Podemos sees victory is at hand, it will resist as long as possible to go to new elections,” he said.

ELECTION

German Greens’ chancellor candidate Baerbock targeted by fake news

With Germany's Green party leading the polls ahead of September's general elections, the ecologists' would-be successor to Angela Merkel has become increasingly targeted by internet trolls and fake news in recent weeks.

German Greens' chancellor candidate Baerbock targeted by fake news
The Greens chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock on April 26th. Photo: DPA

From wild claims about CO2-emitting cats and dogs to George Soros photo collages, 40-year-old Annalena Baerbock has been the subject of a dizzying array of fake news, conspiracy theories and online attacks since she was announced as the Greens’ chancellor candidate in mid-April.

The latest polls have the Greens either ahead of or level with Merkel’s ruling conservatives, as the once fringe party further establishes itself as a leading electoral force in Europe’s biggest economy.

Baerbock herself also consistently polls higher than her conservative and centre-left rivals in the race to succeed Merkel, who will leave office after 16 years this autumn.

Yet her popularity has also brought about unwanted attention and a glut of fake news stories aimed at discrediting Baerbock as she bids to become Germany’s first Green chancellor.

READ ALSO:

False claims

Among the false stories circulating about Baerbock is the bizarre claim that she wants to ban household pets in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Another fake story firmly denied by the party claimed that she defied rules on mask-wearing and social-distancing by embracing colleagues upon her nomination earlier this month.

Baerbock has also been presented as a “model student” of Hungarian billionaire George Soros – a hate figure for the European far-right and anti-Semitic conspiracy theorists – in a mocked-up social media graphic shared among others by a far-right MP.

More serious online attacks include a purported photo of Baerbock which in fact shows a similar-looking naked model.

The Greens’ campaign manager Michael Kellner said that the attempts to discredit Baerbock had “taken on a new dimension”, that “women are targeted more heavily by online attacks than men, and that is also true of our candidate”.

Greens co-leader Annalena Baerbock earlier this month. Photo: DPA

Other false claims about the party include reports of a proposed ban on barbecues, as well as plans to disarm the police and enforce the teaching of the Quran in schools.

While such reports are patently absurd, they are potentially damaging to Baerbock and her party as they bid to spring a surprise victory in September.

“She has a very real chance, but the coming weeks are going to be very important because Baerbock’s public image is still taking shape,” Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University told AFP.

In a bid to fight back against the flood of false information, the party has launched a new “online fire service” to report fake news stories.

READ ALSO: Greens become ‘most popular political party’ in Germany

Russian disinformation

Yet stemming the tide is no easy job, with many of those who peddle disinformation now using private messaging services such as WhatsApp and Telegram rather than public platforms such as Facebook.

The pandemic and ongoing restrictions on public life will also make it harder for the campaign to push through their own narratives at public events.

Miro Dittrich of Germany’s Amadeu-Antonio anti-racism foundation claims that lockdown has “played a role” in the spread of fake news.

“People are isolated from their social environment and are spending a lot more time online,” he said.

Another factor is Russia, which has made Germany a primary target of its efforts to spread disinformation in Europe.

According to the European anti-disinformation platform EUvsDisinfo, Germany has been the target of 700 Russian disinformation cases since 2015, compared to 300 aimed at France and 170 at Italy.

As an outspoken critic of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, Baerbock may well become a target of such attacks during the election campaign.

By Mathieu FOULKES

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