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ECONOMY

Central bank upgrades German growth forecast

The German central bank or Bundesbank on Friday said it was upbeat about the outlook for expansion in Europe's biggest economy, upgrading its growth forecast for 2017.

Central bank upgrades German growth forecast
A worker installs the rear window on a Volkswagen car at the manufacturer's factory in Wolfsburg, Lower Saxony. Photo: DPA

“The Bundesbank's economists expect Germany's real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.7 percent this year, followed by a rise of 1.8 percent in 2016 and 1.7 percent in 2017,” the central bank said in a statement.

The forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are unchanged from the bank's earlier projections, while it had been pencilling in growth of 1.5 percent for 2017.

“The German economy is currently following a growth path that is primarily underpinned by domestic demand,” the statement said.

“The main drivers are the favourable labour market situation and substantial increases in households' real disposable income, though foreign trade is currently being hampered by frail demand from the emerging market economies,” said Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann.

“But with export markets outside the euro area expected to rebound and economic growth within the euro area gaining a little more traction, the healthy underlying state of the German economy should stand out even more clearly over the next two years,” Weidmann said.

Despite the expansionary effect which migration was having on the labour supply, “the labour market will experience shortages to a growing extent, driving up wage increases,” it said.

Turning to the outlook for public finances, the central bank said Germany's general government budget was expected to post “a higher surplus in the current year and record a more or less balanced fiscal outcome in 2016 and 2017.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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