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ECONOMY

Old woes threaten Italy’s economic revival

Italy's economic recovery is under threat from longstanding woes, according to the World Economic Forum's annual report on competitiveness, which was released on Wednesday.

Old woes threaten Italy's economic revival
Italy was ranked 43rd place, six places up from last year, in the WEF annual competitiveness report. Photo: JT/Flickr

The report ranked Italy far behind its European neighbours, with the country finishing in a lowly 43rd place out of the 140 surveyed by the report – one place below Kazakhstan.

In spite of a generally strong performance by Italy, the bel paese was badly let down in some areas, which dragged down its overall score. It came in 139th position for burdensome red tape, 136th for public debt and 126th for labour market forces.

The report stated that Italy's low scores would make any recovery brittle, in spite of the fact that the Italian economy is forecast to return to growth this year.

Italy lagged far behind Switzerland, which was ranked the most competitive country for the seventh consecutive year, while Germany ranked fourth and the UK 10th.

The WEF's annual report collects economic data from 12 different 'pillars' affecting competitiveness, measuring factors that determine a country's productivity and prosperity, such as public institutions, economic policies, healthcare and raw materials.

But old gripes aside, It was not all bad news. 

Overall, Italy moved up six places on last year and scored very highly for its domestic market, healthcare, primary education and its electrical and telecommunications infrastructure – which were all ranked among the top 30.

The report recommended that Italy “needs to continue implementing structural reforms to improve productivity, which remains low compared to other European countries.”

The report also highlighted the economic gulf between northern and southern Europe – as the map below shows.

 

The report stated that since the economic crisis began in 2007 the less competitive economies of southern Europe have struggled to return to pre-crisis levels.

“Over the past years, the more-competitive economies systematically outperformed the least competitive in terms of economic growth; they either withstood the crisis better or recovered more quickly. This suggests that competitiveness drives resilience, which is important in light of future potential shocks,” the report stated.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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