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China’s yuan cut may hit France’s luxury sector

China's triple yuan devaluation could hit France's lucrative luxury sector, which has already been impacted by Beijing's tough anti-corruption drive against spendthrift officials, analysts say.

China's yuan cut may hit France's luxury sector
Chinese tourists look at Eiffel Tower souvenir at the Galeries Lafayette. Photo: AFP
The Asian powerhouse's central bank cut the value of the yuan currency, also known as the renminbi, three days in a row last week, raising questions over the health of the world's second-largest economy and sending global financial markets into a tailspin.
   
The move also cast a cloud over the global luxury market as analysts worry that Chinese consumers, who make up more than 30 percent of worldwide luxury spending, would be less able to fork out cash for high-end handbags, wines or clothes.
   
French giants such as LVMH or Hermes had already felt the pinch of China's drive to end ostentatious spending and its slowing economic growth, which saw the country's luxury market shrink for the first time last year, according to consultants Bain & Company.
   
And while the triple devaluation in itself is not devastating, it has been taken as a sign that the Chinese economy is performing worse than revealed — and that “will add more pressure on the sector,” says Cedric Rossi, an analyst at the Bryan, Garnier & Co investment bank.
   
“The market (for luxury goods) had slowed down in China, but that was partly compensated by the fact that Chinese people spend a lot more in
Europe,” he said.
   
“But if the devaluation continues, the Chinese — 70 percent of whom buy their luxury products outside China — could buy less in Europe.”
 
More parallel imports?
 
LVMH  — home to such brands as Louis Vuitton, Givenchy and Dior  — makes 8.0 percent of its global sales in continental China. Hermes reaps 12 percent and Kering's luxury division including Gucci, Saint Laurent, sells 10 percent, according to analysis from Exane BNP Paribas.
   
A falling yuan means smaller revenues out of China, and also makes it more expensive for Chinese firms to import goods in the first place.
   
Luxury goods are already between 35 to 50 percent pricier in China than in Europe due to import duties and taxes — a gap that will only widen as the yuan falls.
   
“Inevitably, such price disparity has encouraged opportunists to buy up popular items in Europe, in bulk, and resell them in China at well below formal retail prices,” says Fflur Roberts, head of luxury goods at market intelligence firm Euromonitor International.
   
“The grey market is growing, and forcing the owners of luxury brands to take radical action to narrow the differentials.
   
“In practice, this means they are hiking prices in key European cities and dropping them in China, but with the new currency issues in China this may no longer be possible for international brands.”
   
Others say the threat is exaggerated since the yuan had risen strongly against the euro over the past two years.
   
“It's not because there is a devaluation of two, four or five percent that there will be consequences on the luxury industry,” says Francois Godement, head of the Asia and China programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
   
He says the industry has faced a tougher challenge from China's recent anti-corruption drive, which has forced many officials to cut back on their purchases of luxury gifts.
   
The question now is whether the devaluation will also affect tourism in France, which saw some 1.7 million Chinese visitors last year — crucial to the country's struggling economy as they each spend an average of €1,500 ($1,650) on goods, the world's most spendthrift tourists.
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Why are fewer British tourists visiting Spain this year?

Almost 800,000 fewer UK holidaymakers have visited Spain in 2023 when compared to 2019. What’s behind this big drop?

Why are fewer British tourists visiting Spain this year?

Spain welcomed 12.2 million UK tourists between January and July 2023, 6 percent less when compared to the same period in 2019, according to data released on Monday by Spanish tourism association Turespaña.

This represents a decrease of 793,260 British holidaymakers for Spain so far this year.

Conversely, the number of Italian (+8 percent), Irish (+15.3 percent), Portuguese (+24.8 percent), Dutch (+4 percent) and French tourists (+5 percent) visiting España in 2023 are all above the rates in 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. 

German holidaymakers are together with their British counterparts the two main nationalities showing less interest in coming to Spanish shores.

Britons still represent the biggest tourist group that comes to Spain, but it’s undergoing a slump, with another recent study by Caixabank Research suggesting numbers fell particularly in June 2023 (-12.5 percent of the usual rate). 

READ ALSO: Spain fully booked for summer despite most expensive holiday prices ever

So are some Britons falling out of love with Spain? Are there clear reasons why a holiday on the Spanish coast is on fewer British holiday itineraries?

According to Caixabank Research’s report, the main reasons are “the poor macroeconomic performance of the United Kingdom, the sharp rise in rates and the weakness of the pound”.

This is evidenced in the results of a survey by British market research company Savanta, which found that one in six Britons are not going on a summer holiday this year due to the UK’s cost-of-living crisis.

Practically everything, everywhere has become more expensive, and that includes holidays in Spain: hotel stays are up 44 percent, eating out is 13 percent pricier, and flights are 40 percent more on average. 

READ ALSO: How much more expensive is it to holiday in Spain this summer?

Caixabank stressed that another reason for the drop in British holidaymakers heading to Spain is that those who can afford a holiday abroad are choosing “more competitive markets” such as Turkey, Greece and Portugal. 

And there’s no doubt that the insufferably hot summer that Spain is having, with four heatwaves so far, has also dissuaded many holidaymakers from Blighty from overcooking in the Spanish sun. 

With headlines such as “This area of Spain could become too hot for tourists” or “tourists say it’s too hot to see any sights” featuring in the UK press, budding British holidaymakers are all too aware of the suffocating weather conditions Spain and other Mediterranean countries are enduring. 

Other UK outlets have urged travellers to try out the cooler Spanish north rather than the usual piping hot Costa Blanca and Costa del Sol destinations.

Another UK poll by InsureandGo found that 71 percent of the 2,000+ British respondents thought that parts of Europe such as Spain, Greece and Turkey will be too hot to visit over summer by 2027.

There’s further concern that the introduction in 2024 of the new (and delayed) ETIAS visa for non-EU visitors, which of course now also applies to UK nationals, could further compel British tourists to choose countries to holiday in rather than Spain.

READ MORE: Will British tourists need to pay for a visa waiver to enter Spain?

However, a drop in the number of British holidaymakers may not be all that bad for Spain, even though they did spend over €17 billion on their Spanish vacations in 2022. 

Towns, cities and islands across the country have been grappling with the problem of overtourism and the consequences it has on everything from quality of life for locals to rent prices. 

READ ALSO: ‘Beach closed’ – Fake signs put up in Spain’s Mallorca to dissuade tourists

The overcrowded nature of Spain’s beaches and most beautiful holiday hotspots appears to be one of the reasons why Germans are visiting Spain in far fewer numbers. A recent report in the country’s most read magazine Stern asked “if the dream is over” in their beloved Mallorca.

Spanish authorities are also seeking to overhaul the cheaper holiday package-driven model that dominates many resorts, which includes moving away from the boozy antics of young British and other European revellers.

Fewer tourists who spend more are what Spain is theoretically now looking for, and the rise in American, Japanese and European tourists other than Brits signify less of a dependence on the British market, one which tends to maintain the country’s tourism status quo for better or for worse.

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