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Nationalist gains as Moderates dip in polls

The anti-immigration Sweden Democrat party gained support during last week’s national political conference Almedalen, while backing for the country’s main centre-right opposition group fell.

Published: 9 July 2015 07:56 CEST

Nationalist gains as Moderates dip in polls

Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Akesson at Almedalen. Photo TT

The poll, for which more than 1250 people were asked who they would choose if there was a parliamentary election last week, suggests that the nationalist Sweden Democrats are now supported by 18.7 percent of voters.

This represents a jump of 3.0 percent on the last survey carried out by the same pollsters, Demoskop, for Sweden’s newspaper Expressen a month ago.

Sweden’s largest opposition party the Moderates – who led the previous government – saw its support drop by 3.0 points over the same period.

The poll also suggests a slight dip in support for Prime Minister Stefan Löfven’s Social Democrat party, but very small gains for their coalition partner, the Greens.

The smallest party in the Swedish parliament, the centre right Christian Democrats saw its support rise by 0.5 percent.

Demoskop interviewed a random section of people across the country between July 1st to July 7th as Sweden’s political conference week, Almedalen, took place on the island of Gotland. All of Sweden’s parties were given one day to dominate the agenda, culminating in a keynote speech on the stage in Almedalen park, in the medieval city of Visby.

More than 20,000 political campaigners, journalists, councillors, lobbyists and business people attended the event, which was covered in detail by The Local.

The political festival saw the nationalist Sweden Democrats attempt to broaden their agenda by focusing on children’s policies as well as cutting immigration.

Meanwhile new Moderate Party leader Anna Kinberg Batra and Sweden’s youngest political leader Ebba Busch Thor, who heads the Christian Democrats both made their debut Almedalen speeches.

Previous polls have already suggested that the Sweden Democrats have been continuing to grow their fan base since scoring 12.9 percent in the country’s last general election in 2014, but few surveys have suggested a proportion of supporters as high as Demoskop’s estimate of 18.7 percent.

According to the latest polling by Verian for Swedish public broadcaster SVT, one party – the Liberals – is already polling below the formal four percent threshold to enter the European Parliament, but two more, the Christian Democrats and the Centre Party, are worryingly close, with each polling at both 4.5 percent.

If the poll is right, the Social Democrats are set to be the big winners in the election, gaining two additional seats, while the Left Party and the far-right Sweden Democrats are both in line to gain one additional seat.

But as well as the Liberal Party, the Centre Party, Christian Democrats, and Green Party all set to lose one seat each, but as they each currently have more than one seat, they will nonetheless keep their representation in parliament.

Tommy Möller, a professor of politics at Stockholm University, told the TT newswire that the two parties likely to be the most worried ahead of election day on June 9th are the Liberals and the Centre Party.

For the Liberals, it matters partly because it has long seen itself as Sweden's most pro-EU party. At its highpoint 15 years ago, it had three seats in the EU parliament, but it sank to just one in the 2020 European elections.

If the party were now to lose the last of its seats, the leadership of party chairman Johan Persson, Möller argued, would be put into question.

"This could prompt an internal debate on party leadership," he told the TT newswire. "There's no doubt that if the Liberals, who (...) promote themselves as the most pro-EU party, lost its mandate, it would be a massive blow."

He said he would also not rule out a leadership challenge against the Centre Party's leader Muharrem Demirok should his party lose both its seats in the EU parliament, given how badly he has struggled as leader to gain any visibility with voters .

"Obviously the Centre Party is fighting an uphill battle in the opinion polls. If it loses its seat, that would obviously add to the lack of confidence in the party leader, which could prompt an internal leadership debate," Möller said.

For the Christian Democrats, the Verian poll is in some ways encouraging. Thus far the indications are that Folklistan, the party formed by the former Christian Democrat MEP Sara Skyttedal, is far below the 4 percent threshold, with only an estimated 1.5 percent of the vote.

While it is no doubt nibbling away at Christian Democrat support, it has so far not managed to drag the party down to the 4 percent threshold.

Möller said he did not expect anyone to call for party leader Ebba Busch to stand down, almost regardless of the result.

"I don't think there will be calls for her resignation, but obviously, the mandate you have as a leader is always linked to how well its going for the party in opinion polls and elections," he said.

Return of the Greens?

Even though they are projected to lose one of their seats, if the Green Party succeeds in winning 9.5 percent of the vote on June 9th, as the polls suggest, it will still be seen as decent result, showing that the party, which has been struggling in domestic politics, at least does well in the EU elections.

If the party retains its third seat, it will be seen as a resounding victory.

According to a popularity poll by the Aftonbladet newspaper, the party's lead MEP, Alice Bah Kuhnke, is both the second most popular politician standing in the election and the most unpopular, reflecting just how polarising party has become in Sweden.

In the poll, 30 percent of respondents said they had high or very high confidence in Bah Kuhnke, second only to the Left Party's candidate and former leader, Jonas Sjöstedt, on 42 percent. But at the same time, 64 percent of respondents said they had "low confidence" in her.

According to Johan Martinsson, the head of opinion research at Demoskop, who carried out the poll, this should not worry the Greens too much.

"As long as the relevant group of voters have a large amount of confidence, it doesn't really make any difference if you are despised by those who oppose you. It can almost be a good thing as it makes it easier to get attention."

Could the election mark a turnaround for the party, which has voted in two new leaders this year?

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