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ECONOMY

Bundesbank swipes at ECB aid to Greek banks

The head of the German central bank or Bundesbank hit out in a newspaper interview Friday at the ongoing provision of emergency liquidity to Greek banks by the European Central Bank.

Bundesbank swipes at ECB aid to Greek banks
Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann. Photo: DPA

Given the fact that the ECB is banned under its statutes from financing states' debts, “I don't feel it's correct that banks with no access to the markets are awarded loans used to finance the government debt of a country which also has no access to the markets,” Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann told the business daily Handelsblatt.

Since Athens' new anti-austerity government under Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras came to power, the sole financial lifeline still open to Greek banks has been the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) mechanism, which is more expensive than normal central bank refinancing operations.

Previously, the ECB had agreed to accept Greek sovereign bonds as collateral for loans under a special waiver mechanism. But the ECB rescinded that waiver until Athens agrees a new debt deal with its creditors.

Without it, Greek banks now rely solely on ELA.

Asked whether the ECB should also shut down that particular liquidity lifeline and risk pushing Greece out of the eurozone, Weidmann insisted that the solution to the Greek crisis lay in the hands of the politicians.

“The more the impression arises that we are bending our rules and taking on a political role, the more difficult it will be to keep to our mandate,” Weidmann said.

“The ball is very firmly in the court of the Greek government. It must commit its country to a course of fundamental reforms. The provision of further financing can buy more time. But it cannot remedy the lack of competitiveness,” Weidmann said. 

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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