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ECONOMY

France must simplify life to save economy: OECD

France needs a massive drive to simplify everything from the labour code to taxes and business regulations, the liberal economic think tank OECD argued in its annual economic survey. We've summed up exactly what it wants France to do.

France must simplify life to save economy: OECD
President Francois Holande must continue to reform labour market says the OECD. Photo: AFP

The liberal economic think tank OECD made it clear on Thursday exactly what is wrong with France and what it needs to do to dig itself out of the economic doldrums.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development laid into France in its economic survey of the country, published on Thursday, telling Paris that it needs to dramatically simplify life for businesses and workers if it wants to arrest its flagging economy.

While the OECD noted France’s “enviable standard of living”, “high productivity” and “only average income inequality that hasn't worsened despite the crisis” the think tank said the country's economic recovery has been slow and unemployment was still rising.  

The country is in urgent need of simplification to unravel its “significant complexity of systems and institutions," the report concluded although it did compliment France on the "welcome pro-growth structural reforms" it has already made.

Economists from the OECD, who presented their report to France’s Finance Minister Michel Sapin on Thursday, said the government really needs make reform of the labour market its top priority.

It criticises the “strong protection” afforded to those workers on long open-ended contracts which is “hindering mobility” and the country’s notorious 3,000- page long labour code which it says "restricts flexibility in both the private and public sectors".

The report also blasts France over its public spending levels, “which at 57 percent of GDP is among the highest in the OECD and imposes a heavy burden on economic performance.”

The think tank also targets France’s numerous layers of regional bureaucracy, known as the “mille-feuilles” (thousand leaves) particularly the country’s 36,000 communities, which weighs heavy on public spending.

“Operating expenses, public-sector employment and social spending are all greater than in most other EU countries and there are too many sub-central governments with overlapping responsibilities,” said the report.

It also took aim at the vocational education system, which it says “fails to provide many with the skills they need to be hired”.

So what does France need to do to remedy its economy?                   

The OECD has laid out a long list of recommendations for the path it thinks Paris should follow to achieve economic recovery.

  • “Simplification on a broad scale” – Simplification was a word which popped up time and again, whether it was bureaucracy or shop opening hours. But most significantly the OECD says it is the country’s labour code that needs a real streamlining. France must “step up efforts to reduce complexity in the labour code, business norms and regulations, the structure of sub-central government, taxation and pensions,” the report said. So pretty much everything.
  • Cut taxes on labour – French companies have one of the highest payroll tax burdens in Europe and the OECD says it needs to be lessened.
  • Close small public hospitals – This is one of the measures the OECD believes France should take to cut public spending. It should also place a greater emphasis on outpatient surgery, which as it happens is exactly one of the measures the Minister of Health plans to take. Doctors should also be given greater incentive to limit prescriptions to French patients, renowned for being pill-poppers.
  • Cut the number of communes – France has around 36,000 communes, way too many according to the OECD. The government should group many of these communes together under one hat. There’ll be a few local mayors who might have a thing or to say about that.
  • Reform unemployment benefits – France is considered among the  most generous countries in the world when it comes to unemployment benefit, but a little too generous according to the OECD. The think tank says “the parametres” of the benefits system should be altered, “especially the duration”.
  • Education, education, education – The OECD says France can remedy the failures of its vocational education system by “hiring teachers who combine teaching with professional experience outside education” and provide those students who lack skills with more individual support.
  • Review regulations – France needs to employ an independent organisation “to conduct a thorough review of all existing and proposed regulations affecting firms,” the OECD says.
  • Eliminate restrictions on shop opening hours – This has been a controversial issue for some time and although France has moved to allow more Sunday shopping, Paris is unlikely to become a 24-hour shop till you drop city like New York just yet. The powerful unions will have a say about that.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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