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ECONOMY

Strong economy makes for €18-billion surplus

Germany's public finances were back in the black in 2014, as growth in Europe's biggest economy shifted up a gear at the end of the year, official data showed Tuesday.

Strong economy makes for €18-billion surplus
A worker in the Hamburg harbour. Photo: DPA

The combined budgets of the German government, regional states, municipal authorities and welfare system showed an overall surplus of €18 billion last year, the federal statistics office Destatis calculated in a statement.

It was the first time since unification in 1990 that Germany's public finances have been in the black. The surplus represented 0.6 percent of the country's overall gross domestic product (GDP) of €2.904 trillion, Destatis said.

In 2013, Germany had achieved a balanced budget in its public finances.

At the same time, Destatis calculated that German growth picked up in the fourth quarter of last year, with GDP expanding by 0.7 percent.

The statistics office said that Germany's financial surplus last year resulted from the difference between revenues of €1.294 trillion and expenditure of €1.276 trillion.

The government budget alone showed a surplus of €11.4 billion, compared with a deficit of €4.5 billion a year earlier.

The regional states' finances also swung to a surplus of €1.9 billion in 2014 from a deficit of €2.8 billion in 2013.

The municipal authorities turned in a surplus of €1.3 billion and the welfare budget showed a surplus of €3.4 billion, Destatis said.

Under eurozone rules, member states are not allowed to run up public deficits in excess of 3.0 percent of GDP and are obliged to bring their budgets into balance or surplus in the medium term.

Robust domestic demand

Confirming a preliminary estimate published earlier this month, the statistics office said that GDP growth of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter was driven primarily by robust domestic demand.

Following a strong start to the year, when GDP grew by 0.8 percent in the first three months, the German economy subsequently lost momentum due to the uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine crisis and other geopolitical risks.

GDP actually shrank by 0.1 percent in the second quarter and showed only meagre growth of 0.1 percent in the third quarter.

But domestic demand helped growth pick up again at the end of the year, with consumer spending rising by 0.8 percent and public spending by 0.2 percent, Destatis said. Investment also increased and exports rose by 1.3 percent.

Analysts welcomed the latest set of positive data for Europe's biggest economy.

"Looking ahead, we expect more positive news from the German economy, in line with the brightening trend in soft data – such as the sentiment indicators – and hard data," said Natixis economist Johannes Gareis.

The expert said he was particularly cheered by the rebound in business investment in the fourth quarter.

"As the fundamentals are good and the uncertainty seems to fade, we think that the recovery in business investment is likely to strengthen in the course of 2015," Gareis said.

In addition, household consumption should remain an important pillar of Germany's growth, the expert said.

"Household confidence is very buoyant and households' real income is bolstered by solid wage increases due to a robust labour market and low inflation, which all bodes well for private consumption growth," he said.

Benchmark wage deal

Earlier on Tuesday, Germany's powerful metalworkers' union, IG Metall, reached agreement with management for a 3.4-percent wage increase for the sector which is expected to act as a benchmark for much of the rest of German industry.
BayernLB economist Stefan Kipar said the latest data "show that the German economy has gained a lot of momentum at the end of last year and the outlook for the current year is equally positive."

"In an environment of low interest rates and above-inflation wage increases, consumption will continue to provide a lot of impulses for the German economy in 2015," Kipar said.

It remained to be seen to what extent the Greek debt crisis and other geopolitical risks would weigh on German exports, he said.

"But we expect the fallout to be limited," Kipar added.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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