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ECONOMY

Strong Q4 sparks economic boost for 2014

The German economy, Europe's biggest, expanded surprisingly strongly in the fourth quarter of 2014, driven primarily by robust consumer spending, official data showed on Friday.

Strong Q4 sparks economic boost for 2014
Photo: DPA

In the period from October to December, gross domestic product expanded by 0.7 percent, bringing full-year growth to 1.6 percent, the federal statistics office Destatis said in a statement.

"The German economy regained momentum at the end of last year," Destatis said.

"After the robust start in the first quarter and subsequent weakness in the second and third quarters, the economy stabilised again in the final quarter."

In a preliminary estimate last month, Destatis had calculated that gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 1.5 percent in the whole of 2014 and that fourth-quarter growth was "around a quarter of a percentage point."

The main growth driver was consumer spending, the statisticians explained.

Investment was also positive, particularly in equipment and construction.

And both imports and exports also rose strongly, Destatis added.

"The German economy ended a volatile year on a very strong note," said ING DiBa economist Carsten Brzeski.

A more detailed breakdown of the GDP data will be published only at the end of the month.

"But available monthly indicators and the statistical office's statement suggest that domestic demand was the main growth driver. A clear sign that lower oil prices have found their way into consumers' pockets," Brzeski said.

"Looking ahead, the German economy looks set to continue surfing on a wave of economic well-being. With the strong labour market, wage increases, low energy prices and extremely low interest rates, consumers should continue to spend," he said.

Political uncertainty

Simon Juncker at the DIW think tank in Berlin cautioned that the euro area recovery "remains fragile, not least because political uncertainty has substantially increased again, as Greece has shown."

A new escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could also dampen companies' investment plans, Juncker warned.

BayernLB economist Johannes Mayr suggested that the unusually mild weather may have distorted the quarterly growth figures.

"Nevertheless, the outlook for Germany remains positive," Mayr said. "We expect the economy to grow a bit faster in the whole of 2015 than it did in 2014."

Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz was also positive.

"The tailwinds from cheap oil, a weaker euro exchange rate and increasingly aggressive European Central Bank monetary policy easing should more than offset the serious short-term risks such as Greece and Russia," he said.

"While the first half of 2015 could still be a little more subdued due to these risks, we expect German growth to reach trend levels a bit above 2.0 percent in the summer 2015," Schulz concluded.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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