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ECONOMY

Business makes confident start to 2015

German businesses are confident about the outlook for Europe's biggest economy, a new poll showed on Monday, as a weaker euro and falling oil prices are set to boost the country's exporters.

Business makes confident start to 2015
A worker checks compensators in a Baden-Württemberg factory. Photo: DPA

Nevertheless, it was too early to predict the impact on German confidence of the elections in Greece, where the victory of a radical left anti-austerity party could reignite concerns of a euro break-up, analysts cautioned.

The Ifo institute's closely watched business climate index rose to 106.7 in January month from 105.5 points in December, the think tank said in a statement.

It was the third monthly rise in a row and was slightly higher than analysts' expectations.

"Companies were far more satisfied with their current business situation and the majority were also optimistic about the business outlook," said Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn.

"The German economy has gotten off to a good start to the year."

Ifo calculates its headline index on the basis of companies' assessments of current business and the outlook for the next six months.

The sub-index measuring current business rose to 111.7 points, the highest level since July 2014, and the outlook sub-index increased by 0.7 point to 102.0 points, the institute said.

Greek uncertainty

Nevertheless, the survey was conducted before the Greek elections, and the victory of the anti-austerity party Syriza there could soon begin to sour the recovery prospects once again, analysts warned.

"Substantial market turbulence or long, drawn-out discussions about the risk of a so-called 'Grexit' (Greek exit from the euro) could dampen sentiment again in the coming months," said BayernLB economist Stefan Kipar.

"It remains to be seen what effect the outcome of the Greek elections will have."

Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz also saw the Greek issue as an uncertainty factor.

"The renewed political risks in Greece probably prevented a stronger improvement" in Ifo's expectations sub-index, he said.

"That supports our short-term caution for Germany's economy until the Greek risk is resolved one way or another."

Natixis economist Johannes Gareis was more confident.

"There are several fundamental factors that support Germany's economic recovery, after it has lost speed in the course of 2014," he said.

Lower euro, oil price

"For 2015, Germany – and the eurozone – surely can lock in a positive growth stimulus from the massive drop in oil prices, a lower euro exchange rate and substantial monetary loosening by the European Central Bank," he said.

"This indicates a promising start to the new year. We currently expect the German economy to grow by 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter," he said.

Capital Economics economist Jennifer McKeown said the renewed rise in the Ifo index "suggests that fears about the effect of the Greek crisis on the German economy have so far been offset by the perceived benefits of a weaker euro and ECB quantitative easing."

Last week, the ECB unveiled plans for a €1.1 trillion bond purchase programme to stimulate the eurozone's sluggish economy.

UniCredit economist Andreas Rees was also confident.

"The signs of a recovery in the making have become even stronger and more unambiguous," he said, pointing to the lower oil price, the depreciating euro and a brisk US economy.

"For the first quarter of 2015, we expect a growth acceleration to plus 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter. And we're sticking to our growth forecast of 1.4 percent for this year as a whole.”

SEE ALSO: ECB bond-buying 'brings risks'

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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