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ECONOMY

Finally some ‘good’ news for French economy

France finally received a modicum of positive news about the economy on Wednesday. The country has halted its slide down an international ranking of the most economically competitive nations, though it still lags far behind the likes of Belgium and Luxembourg.

Finally some 'good' news for French economy
The latest rankings of global competitiveness brought a little cheer for France. Photo: AFP

Though it seems every day brings more discouraging data about France's economy, a report out on Wednesday provides something akin to good news.

After falling for each of the last four years, France has at last halted its fall down the World Economic Forum's 2014-2015 rankings of the globe's biggest economic powerhouses.

Though the French come in at an unimpressive 23rd place, the 15,000 business leaders whose opinions provide the basis for the report on 144 nations, believe France is becoming more of a contender.

"The government has promised a “competitiveness shock” and is considering a number of business-friendly measures, including a simplification of administrative procedures, in order to revive growth and reduce the country’s stubbornly high level of unemployment," the report said.

They continue: "Traditionally a black spot, the situation of France’s labour market has improved markedly over  the year, thanks to increased flexibility, although it still remains a challenge."

The reports authors, whom weighed everything from the local education system to labour regulations, were particularly impressed with France's excellent infrastructure, its educated populace and its embrace of new technology.

Despite the positive feedback the rankings put France behind its neighbors by a significant margin, with the report ranking Switzerland first, Finland fourth, Germany fifth, and the Netherlands, the UK and Sweden grabbing respectively the last three spots in the top 10.

The reality of France's economic situation provides a partial explanation for the gulf, the study's authors said.

Ten things to know about France's economics whizzkid

"The fiscal situation—the second area of major concern—continues to deteriorate," the study said. "The small reduction in the budget deficit is accompanied by an increase in public debt and a downgrading of France’s creditworthiness."

Standard & Poor's credit agency knocked France's credit rating down a notch to AA in November 2013, citing a slow pace of economic reforms. And while Britain's rating was cut a notch last year as well, the authors saw plenty of other good things happening there.

"Overall, the [UK] improves its performance thanks to gains derived from lower levels of fiscal deficit and public debt," the report said.

"In addition to these more favorable macroeconomic conditions, the United Kingdom continues to benefit from an efficient labor market and a high level of financial development, despite the recent difficulties in parts of its banking system."

Fixing France's economy is the number one subject on the lips of the country's national leaders. President François Hollande continues to purse his "Responsibility Pact" which is supposed to spur hiring by cutting taxes on businesses that is to be funded by €50 billion in budget cuts over the next three years.

Yet unemployment rose in July again, which made for the ninth straight month of increases in the number of jobless. Also, revolting members of his cabinet recently prompted a cabinet reshuffle by very publicly slamming the president's economic policies.

in response to the tumult Hollande named whizzkid former Rothschild banker Emmanuel Macron as economy minister, a move that's pleased business leaders. Prime Minister Manuel Valls has also tried to make it clear the government is no longer an enemy to the world of business.

Valls recently made headline when he told a meeting of the country's top corporate leaders that he "loves business."

But whether any of this will result in a return to growth remains to be seen and in the meantime the French people are becoming increasingly angry and hopeless.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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