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ECONOMY

French efforts to cut debt are not enough: Moody’s

Credit ratings agency Moody's said this week that France's efforts to tackle its high deficit will likely fall short of targets set for this year and next.

French efforts to cut debt are not enough: Moody's
Credit ratings agency Moody's says French efforts to cut debt will not be enough to meet targets. Photo: Joel Saget/AFP

France's stated plan to cut spending and taxes to trim €18 billion ($24 billion) from the deficit this year and €50 billion from 2015 to 2017 is "broadly positive" for competitiveness, Moody's said in a statement.

But the ambition of the plan, the fact most of the expenditure cuts are unspecified, the political unpopularity of reduced healthcare spending, and weak growth all underline the "significant implementation risk," it said.

That goes to supporting Moody's negative outlook for France's sovereign rating, which it currently puts at Aa1, it added.

Moody’s was however sceptical about the government’s ability to implement these reforms, saying the task would be even “more difficult in a context of sluggish growth”.

“If the new guidelines adopted by the French government seem generally favourable to the overall competitiveness of the country, the risk associated with the implementation of the program is significant,” Moody’s said, citing “political tensions".

Moody's has downgraded its own forecasts for the French economy. It now expects growth of 0.6% this year and 1.3% in 2015, compared to previous predictions of 1.0% and 1.5% respectively.

There are also doubts at a European level whether France can stick to its targets of cutting its deficit.

The European Union in June last year agreed to give France an extra two years, until 2015, to bring its deficit under the EU-agreed ceiling of 3.0 percent of economic output.

But strong doubts remain over whether the French government will be able to make good on its promise, as it struggles to balance its left-wing agenda and meet its commitments to the European Union.

Earlier this year Finance Minister Michel Sapin was forced to deny that that Paris were hoping to persuade the EU to give them more time.

"I have always said that I have not asked for a delay," Michel Sapin told AFP in a telephone interview, as the government spokesman said that deficit control was a condition for growth.

Britain, which also has an Aa1 rating and similar debt and deficit figures, has a stable outlook because of "a stronger track record of fiscal consolidation" after more than three years of spending cuts, Moody's noted.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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