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ECONOMY

Consumer confidence back to pre-crisis levels

Danes are feeling better about the economy than they have since 2007, so does that mean the recession is finally over? The Local spoke to an economics professor to find out.

Consumer confidence back to pre-crisis levels
With confidence up, will flat spending finally see a spike? Photo: Copenhagen Media Center
Two newly-released consumer confidence studies indicate that Danes feel the recession is safely behind them.
 
Statistics Denmark’s consumer expectations survey revealed that Danes’ consumer confidence rose for a record fifth consecutive month, while Nielsen’s 2014 Global Consumer Confidence Survey showed that Denmark enjoys the highest level of consumer confidence in Europe.
 
In the Statistics Denmark index, in which respondents are asked about their both own financial situation and the general economic conditions in Denmark, consumer confidence rose to 10.6 points in July. That is the highest number since January 2007.
 
“The consumer confidence index has taken yet another hop up and now sits at 10.6 in July compared to 9.3 in June,” Statistics Denmark stated. “With that, the positive development in consumer confidence, which for the past year has been at an average of 7.1, continues.”
 
It is the first time in 40 years of the index that consumer confidence levels have increased for five straight months. 
 
While it might be tempting to say that the increase in confidence means that Denmark has finally recovered from the recession, Bo Sandemann Rasmussen, an economics professor at Aarhus University, said we are not quite there yet.
 
“We are pretty close to being out of the recession, but we seem to lack the final evidence that were are finally out of it," Rasmussen told The Local. "Some of the key indicators like growth and job creation don’t yet show the substantial evidence that the recession is truly over, but I think we can expect to come out of it in the next one or two quarters.”
 
According to Nielsen’s annual consumer confidence survey, Danes feel better about the economy than their neighbours do. While consumer confidence dropped in most European markets in the fourth quarter of 2013, Denmark was the only country to post a confidence score above Nielsen’s optimism baseline.
 
With an index score of 105, Denmark was just one of 11 countries in the world to indicate overall optimism. Neighbouring Germany had an index score of 95, while Sweden scored at 85. 
 
Nine out of ten countries with the lowest overall consumer confidence scores in Nielsen’s index were from Europe. The most confident countries were in Asia, with Indonesia, India, the Philippines and China taking the top four spots.  
 
Rasmussen said that the Nielsen results could simply be a matter of timing. 
 
“If you look back at the the last four to five years, we have had almost no growth in Denmark, whereas other countries have grown faster. Denmark has been at a standstill,” Rasmussen said. “People seem to be paying off their debt, but private consumption has been flat over the past five years. So we’ve been just a bit slower to come out of it than some of the other European countries.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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