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WMO links bad weather with climate change

The Philippines' devastating Typhoon Haiyan and drought in Australia are among recent weather extremes consistent with man-made climate change, the UN's Geneva-based weather agency said on Monday.

WMO links bad weather with climate change
WMO headquarters in Geneva. Photo (detail): Mark Parsons

"Many of the extreme events of 2013 were consistent with what we would expect as a result of human-induced climate change," Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the World Meterological Organization (WMO), said as he released his agency's annual climate report.
   
"We saw heavier precipitation, more intense heat, and more damage from storm surges and coastal flooding as a result of sea level rise — as Typhoon Haiyan so tragically demonstrated in the Philippines," he added.
   
While individual extremes cannot be pinned on man-made climate change alone, due to a complex web of factors, Jarraud said they are part of a clear trend.
   
He pointed to data from Australia showing that record heat there last year would have been "virtually impossible" without human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
   
Other 2013 weather events flagged by the agency included extreme cold in Europe and the United States, floods in India, Nepal, northern China, Russia, central Europe, Sudan and Somalia, snow in the Middle East, and droughts in southern China, Brazil, southern Africa and the western United States.

'No standstill' in global warming

Extreme cold in no way undermines the idea of global warming, Jarraud said, noting that climate change by definition skews weather patterns.
   
"When some people say global warming has stopped, what is now a record cold year is actually warmer than any year before 1998," he said.
   
Phenomena such as volcanic eruptions or the El Nino and La Nina weather patterns in the Pacific have always influenced temperatures and sparked disasters, but human activity is an accelerator, Jarraud explained.
   
"There is no standstill in global warming," he said.
   
"Levels of these greenhouse gases are at record levels, meaning that our atmosphere and oceans will continue to warm for centuries to come.

The laws of physics are non-negotiable," he added.
   
The report said 2013 tied with 2007 as the sixth warmest on record.
   
The average global land and ocean surface temperature for the year was 14.5 degrees Celsius (58.1 degrees Fahrenheit) — 0.5 C (0.9 F) above the 1961-1990 average and 0.03 C (0.05 F) higher than the average for 2001-2010, which was already the warmest decade on record.
   
Thirteen of the 14 warmest years on record occurred in the 21st century, and each of the last three decades has been warmer than the last.
   
Researchers have long warned that the chance is ebbing fast to limit global warming to 2.0 C (3.6 F) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels — the UN target.
   
"We cannot say that there is a magic number where below it, everything is OK, and beyond, it's a disaster," warned Jarraud.
   
"The more the temperature increases, the more adaptation will be required and therefore the more expensive it will be, in particular the impact for the least developed countries who may not have the resources to adapt."

Denial 'no longer possible

But there is little agreement on how to slow emissions of greenhouse gases — notably carbon dioxide — pumped out by industry, transport and agriculture, compounded by deforestation.
   
"To people who still deny the human origin of climate change, I'm sorry to say, but it's no longer possible," Jarraud said.
   
"But while awareness is accelerating, it still hasn't been translated into decision making," he warned.
   
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN's Nobel-winning group of scientists, says that global greenhouse gas emissions surged by an average 2.2 percent per year between 2000 and 2010.
   
This compared to 1.3 percent per year between 1970 and 2000.
   
Some experts say that on current trends, warming by 2100 could be 4.0 C (7.2 F) or higher, spelling more severe droughts, floods, storms and hunger for many millions of people.
   
"If you take a system like the earth's climate and give it as big a kick as we're giving it, we're going to have to be incredibly lucky to not see severe climate changes," Brian Hoskins, of Imperial College London, was quoted as saying by Britain's Science Media Centre.

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CLIMATE

‘Progress’ in Paris climate change talks

Ministers and negotiators from more than 75 nations have made headway in talks ahead of a crunch UN climate summit in Paris, but "the task ahead is considerable", France's foreign minister said Tuesday.

'Progress' in Paris climate change talks
Hollande and other leaders at the 'pre-COP' talks which concluded Tuesday. Photo: Stephanie De Sakutin/AFP

Laurent Fabius, who will preside over the November 30th-December 11th conference in Paris, told journalists the three days of talks, which ended Tuesday, had been an important step and “progress has been made on at least five points”.

But he warned “the task ahead is considerable”.

UN climate chief Christiana Figueres added: “It continues to be entirely possible to come to an agreement… despite all the challenges in front of us.”

Fabius announced that 117 heads of state and government – including US President Barack Obama, China's Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi of India and Russia's Vladimir Putin – have confirmed they will attend the summit, tasked with inking a pact to stave off dangerous levels of global warming.

A rough draft of that hoped-for agreement has been drawn up by rank-and-file diplomats, with ministers set to sign the final deal at the end of the Conference of Parties (COP) in Paris.

The deal will be underpinned by national pledges to curb greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels blamed for climate change.

The “pre-COP” meeting sought to identify areas of potential compromise on issues still dividing nations and so avoid a repeat of the 2009 Copenhagen summit, which ended without a binding global pact.

Fabius said there was momentum towards ensuring that countries ratchet up their efforts to slash carbon pollution beyond pledges submitted ahead of the
summit.

“A review should take place every five years… to prepare an upward revision of national plans,” he said. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude oil exporter, filed its climate pledge on Tuesday, saying up to 130 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year would be “avoided” by 2030.

 'Matter of survival'

Current national plans would yield average global temperatures three degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times – far beyond the 2C (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) limit that scientists say is the threshold for dangerous warming.

“The COP 21 will put in place the mechanism to close the gap,” Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, Peru's environment minister, told AFP. “Getting to 2C depends on boosting our ambition.”

Enshrining the principle that nations would not be allowed to backtrack on their carbon-cutting promises is also gaining ground, Fabius said.

Another make-or-break issue on the table in the three-day talks was money for developing nations to help them decarbonize their economies, and shore up defences against unavoidable climate impacts.

“Climate finance was very central” to the discussions, said Thoriq Ibrahim, Minister of the Environment and Energy for the Maldives, one of many small island  states whose very existence is threatened by rising sea levels.

“Adaptation is a matter of survival for us,” he told AFP. “Nobody wants to leave the Maldives, we are there to stay.”

African leaders said they were looking to the talks for solutions to electrify the continent, grow its economies and keep their young people from fleeing abroad.

The 195-nation UN climate forum has officially adopted the goal of limiting global warming to 2C, but many vulnerable and poor nations are pushing for that threshold to be lowered to 1.5C.

Recent scientific studies have shown that even if the 2C goal is attained, the impact could be devastating in many parts of the world.

 A 2C rise would submerge land currently occupied by 280 million people, while an increase of 4C would cover areas home to 600 million, according to a study published by Climate Central, a US-based research group.
 

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