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ECONOMY

Foreign investors return to revitalized Spain

A year after fleeing Spain as its economy tottered on the brink of a full-blown sovereign bailout, foreign investors are coming back.

Foreign investors return to revitalized Spain
Photo: Lluis Gene/AFP

The prospect of relatively high returns in a eurozone economy emerging from recession with a strong corporate presence in Latin America is apparently proving irresistible.

Among the latest converts, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates snapped up in September a 5.7-percent stake in Spanish construction and services group FCC
for €108 million ($147 million).

News of the US billionaire’s decision sent FCC stock surging more than 10 percent in a single day and made headlines in the Spanish media.

“Foreign investment is returning to Spain,” said state secretary for business Jaime Garcia Legaz as he presented a report last month on sovereign funds by the Spanish business school ESADE.

“They are expecting a Spanish economic recovery,” he added.

“It is clear that the perception of Spain has changed. It is improving week by week.”

Spain would enjoy a surplus in its current account — the broadest measure of trade including financial flows — equal to two percent of its economic output at the end of this year, he forecast.

That would be a far cry from the 10-percent current account deficit Spain posted in the depth of the financial crisis, which erupted in 2008 after the collapse of a decade-long property bubble.

Between January and August this year, foreigners ploughed nearly €19 billion in net direct investments into Spain, twice as much as they had in the same period a year earlier.

The money is welcome in a country gingerly emerging from a two-year recession as it narrows its public deficit, boosts competitiveness and struggles with a jobless rate of 25.98 percent.

“The Spanish market is regaining its attraction,” said France’s ambassador to Spain, Jerome Bonnafont, describing the change as “a turning point”.

“There is a clear increase in spontaneous questions from French companies about Spain,” said Richard Gomes, local director of Ubifrance, an organisation that helps French firms to operate internationally.

Sovereign funds are banking on Spain, too, showing particular interest in companies that have a strong presence in Latin America, according to the ESADE study.

Among the most emblematic investments, Singaporean sovereign fund Temasek has ploughed money into Repsol, and Abu Dhabi’s IPIC is now the full owner of Spanish petroleum and gas group Cepsa.

Maria Victoria Zingani, financial director at another Spanish oil giant, Repsol, said Temasek had also approached her company in 2012 as it toured Southeast Asia to lure foreign investors. Today the fund, which has visited Repsol installations in Brazil and Bolivia, holds a 6.23-percent stake in the group.

Sovereign funds are looking for highly diversified companies with long-term growth prospects and a presence in Latin America, she said.

“It is a phenomenon that is growing and will continue to grow,” said ESADE professor Javier Santiso.

The ESADE study identified 82 sovereign funds in the world with total assets of more than $5.5 trillion.

After initially targeting infrastructure and energy industries, they are increasingly looking at the new technology sector while also casting a cautious eye at property, Santiso said.

According to the ESADE study, Asian funds especially from Singapore and China are emerging as the big investors in Spanish companies, a change from just two years ago when Arab funds, in particular Qatar Holdings, were the leaders.

Qatar Holdings took stakes of more than six percent in Banco Santander and energy group Iberdrola, spending more than $2 billion on each investment as it banked on their strong presence in Brazil. It is now the main shareholder in Iberdrola with 8.18 percent of the company.

“Sovereign funds anticipated the return of foreign investors, betting on Spain since 2011,” said Antonio Hernandez, analyst at financial advisory group KPMG, predicting they would continue to do so in 2013.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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