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‘Spain’s job market forecasts are too rosy’

Spain's government says the country has turned the corner on unemployment but analysts are warning it's far too early to jump up and down about the prospect of much shorter jobless queues in the country.

'Spain's job market forecasts are too rosy'
Men protest Spain's social welfare cuts by building a wall at the entrance of an unemployment office in Spain's Basque Country in March. File photo: Rafa Rivas/AFP

September's figures marked a sea change in Spanish unemployment , Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro told Spanish public television TVE on Wednesday.

"The deterioration of the job market has hit bottom," he added.

"Spain in 2014 will be in condition to grow and create jobs."

Montoro spoke as the government said the number of registered unemployed rose in September by about 25,500 people from the previous month to reach 4.72 million as a summer jobs boom ended.

But the government stressed this was the smallest increase in joblessness in the month of September since 2007.

The government estimates the Spanish economy emerged this quarter from a double-dip recession brought on by the bursting of a housing bubble in 2008 and will post growth of 0.7 percent next year.

But despite signs of growth, the rise in unemployment illustrates a cyclical inevitability, said Raj Badiani, an economist at  IHS Global Insight in London.

Retailers will continue to cut their workforces as consumers rein in spending and government austerity measures will mean further public sector job losses, he said.

"Job losses continue alarmingly," Badiani added with job seekers entering the cash economy or "leaving Spain in search of employment across the EU."

Spain's official unemployment rate, which is calculated on a broad household survey released every three months, hit 26.26 percent in the second quarter of this year or 5.8 million people, from a record  27.16 percent in the first quarter.

The government predicts the unemployment rate will drop to 25.9 percent in 2014 after ending 2013 at 26.9 percent, a forecast which most analysts see as too rosy.

"The projection for the evolution of the job market is a bit optimistic. The level of growth that is projected for next year seems insufficient," said Jesus Castillo, economist at French investment bank Natixis in Paris.

Natixis predicts the unemployment rate will stand at 26.5 percent while the International Monetary Fund sees it climbing to 27 percent and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development see it rising to 28 percent.

"In theory below growth of 2.0 percent, there will be no creation of employment," said Javier Velazquez, an economics professor at Madrid's Complutense University.

Any drop in unemployment was due in large part to foreign immigrants packing up their bags and abandoning Spain and people dropping out of the job market, he added.

"The fact that unemployment fell does not mean that employment has risen.

There are people who move to the category of 'the discouraged', who are inactive, who have not even signed up at job centres because they think it is a waste of time," he said.

Unions complain that the bulk of the jobs that are being created are on short-term contracts that offer little security.

"It is true that the volume of hiring has increased a little bit. The problem is that the new contracts that are being signed are part-time and temporary, therefore they will be destroyed," said Paloma Lopez who is in charge of employment at Spain's largest trade union, CCOO.

The Washington-based IMF has warned that Spain faces five more years with an unemployment rate topping 25 percent unless it enacts new reforms including measures to help firms slash wages instead of axing staff.

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BUSINESS

Unemployment in France falls slightly despite the lockdown

Unemployment in France has fallen slightly, despite the ongoing ravages of the health crisis and consequent lockdown, latest statistics show.

Unemployment in France falls slightly despite the lockdown
Photo: Stephane du Sakatin/AFP

The number of unemployed job seekers in mainland France fell by 0.4 percent in the first three months of 2021, according to figures published by the French Ministry of Labour on Tuesday.

There were 3,560,600 unemployed registered at the Pôle Emploi (unemployment office), 12,200 fewer than during the last three months of 2020.

This follows a 2.7 percent fall in the final three months of 2020 – but the rate is still up 6.8 percent compared with the first three months of 2020, before Europe began to feel the economic impact of the Covid pandemic.

Currently all ‘non essential’ shops in France have been closed since April 3rd, while bars, restaurants, cafés, gyms, cinemas, theatres, museums and tourist sites have been closed since October 2020.

Despite the fall the total number of job seekers, the number of people who were in work but with reduced hours was up by 0.8 percent at the start of 2021, to 2,156,300.

That means that in total 5,716,900 people in mainland France were registered with Pôle emploi during this period, an increase of 4.9 percent compared with a year ago.

“Over the course of 2020, in one year, unemployment rose by 8 percent. This is obviously a lot, but we must remember that during the crisis of 2008-2009, unemployment leapt by 25 percent, so we can see that the government assistance is working,” Minister of Labour Élisabeth Borne told BFMTV on Tuesday.

The French government has put together a huge package of economic aid to try and mitigate the effects of the repeated lockdowns, from chômage partiel (furlough) schemes for employees to aid packages for business owners and the self-employed. But many small retailers have been hit hard by the three periods of closure for non-essential shops, while the tourist, leisure and hospitality sectors have also had a devastating year.

The economic downturn linked to the pandemic has disproportionately affected young people in France.  Across all categories of job seekers (unemployed and with reduced hours), the latest figures show a rise of 7.1 percent in a year for those under 25, compared to 4.5 percent for the 25-29 age range, and 4.8 percent for those aged 50 and over.

Men are also more likely to have signed up to Pôle emploi, with a 6.1 percent increase on last year, compared to a 3.8 percent increase among women.

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