SHARE
COPY LINK

IMF

IMF posts grim jobless warning for Spain

The IMF told Spain on Friday it faces five more years with an unemployment rate topping 25 percent as it pressed Madrid to enact new reforms including measures to help firms slash wages instead of axing staff.

IMF posts grim jobless warning for Spain
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of International Monetary Fund. File photo: Petras Malukas/AFP

Spain's economy, the fourth largest in the eurozone, has been shrinking for two years and official data show the unemployment rate hit 26.26 percent in the second quarter of this year, slightly below the record 27.16 percent posted in the first quarter.

The outlook for Spain's economy, the fourth largest in the eurozone, is "difficult and risks are high," the International Monetary Fund's annual report said, predicting a 1.6-percent economic contraction this year, zero growth in 2014 and growth of just 0.3 percent in 2015.

"The weak recovery will constrain employment gains, with unemployment remaining above 25 percent in 2018," said the report compiled by IMF staff.

The Washington-based institution said it expected the Spanish unemployment rate to hit 27.2 percent this year, then dip to 27.0 percent next year, 26.9 percent in 2015, 26.6 percent in 2016, 26.0 percent in 2017 and 25.3 percent in 2018.

In its previous World Economic Outlook report in April, the Fund had said it expected the jobless rate to dip below 25 percent two years earlier, declining to 24.7 percent in 2016.

IMF executive directors praised Madrid for economic reforms, including 2012 legislation making it cheaper to lay off workers and easier to change staff hours and cut wages.

"However the economy remains in recession, with unacceptably high unemployment, and the outlook remains difficult," the directors said.

"Labour market dynamics need to improve further in order to reduce unemployment sufficiently."

IMF staff who held talks with Spanish government officials said the labour market dynamics "do not seem to have improved sufficiently" despite last year's reforms.

"In the end, faster wage adjustment would likely lead to fewer people losing jobs or consuming less for fear of this risk and more unemployed being hired," the staff said.

The minimum wage in Spain is €645 ($850) a month.    

Besides enabling wage cuts, the IMF officials urged Spain to narrow the gap between workers on permanent contracts, who have the right to high payments in case of dismissal, and those on more precarious temporary contracts.

If Spanish unions and employers could agree on the reforms, such a deal would accelerate job gains, the IMF staff report said.

But Spanish government officials "did not see the present social environment as sufficiently receptive for such an agreement and feared that trying to reach one might stall crucial reforms," it added.

The IMF mission chief for Spain, James Daniel, said in a separate report that the recession-hit Spanish economy would probably show growth later this year "in the fourth or even third quarter."

"But the really important question is not whether Spain will grow but whether Spain will grow enough to create lots of new jobs to bring down unacceptably high unemployment and to increase household incomes."

Spain has never managed to achieve net job creation with economic growth of less than 1.5–2.0 percent, the IMF report said.

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.

BUSINESS

Unemployment in France falls slightly despite the lockdown

Unemployment in France has fallen slightly, despite the ongoing ravages of the health crisis and consequent lockdown, latest statistics show.

Unemployment in France falls slightly despite the lockdown
Photo: Stephane du Sakatin/AFP

The number of unemployed job seekers in mainland France fell by 0.4 percent in the first three months of 2021, according to figures published by the French Ministry of Labour on Tuesday.

There were 3,560,600 unemployed registered at the Pôle Emploi (unemployment office), 12,200 fewer than during the last three months of 2020.

This follows a 2.7 percent fall in the final three months of 2020 – but the rate is still up 6.8 percent compared with the first three months of 2020, before Europe began to feel the economic impact of the Covid pandemic.

Currently all ‘non essential’ shops in France have been closed since April 3rd, while bars, restaurants, cafés, gyms, cinemas, theatres, museums and tourist sites have been closed since October 2020.

Despite the fall the total number of job seekers, the number of people who were in work but with reduced hours was up by 0.8 percent at the start of 2021, to 2,156,300.

That means that in total 5,716,900 people in mainland France were registered with Pôle emploi during this period, an increase of 4.9 percent compared with a year ago.

“Over the course of 2020, in one year, unemployment rose by 8 percent. This is obviously a lot, but we must remember that during the crisis of 2008-2009, unemployment leapt by 25 percent, so we can see that the government assistance is working,” Minister of Labour Élisabeth Borne told BFMTV on Tuesday.

The French government has put together a huge package of economic aid to try and mitigate the effects of the repeated lockdowns, from chômage partiel (furlough) schemes for employees to aid packages for business owners and the self-employed. But many small retailers have been hit hard by the three periods of closure for non-essential shops, while the tourist, leisure and hospitality sectors have also had a devastating year.

The economic downturn linked to the pandemic has disproportionately affected young people in France.  Across all categories of job seekers (unemployed and with reduced hours), the latest figures show a rise of 7.1 percent in a year for those under 25, compared to 4.5 percent for the 25-29 age range, and 4.8 percent for those aged 50 and over.

Men are also more likely to have signed up to Pôle emploi, with a 6.1 percent increase on last year, compared to a 3.8 percent increase among women.

SHOW COMMENTS