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RECESSION

‘Exports surge to end recession’: Central bank

The crisis hit Spanish economy remained in recession in the second quarter but seemed close to a recovery thanks to exports, the Bank of Spain said on Tuesday.

'Exports surge to end recession': Central bank
Exports have been a rare bright spot for the Spanish economy. Photo: Antonio Tajuelo

"According to available data, that is still incomplete, we estimate GDP fell by 0.1 percent on a quarterly basis, a yearly drop of 1.8 percent," the central bank said in a statement.

But the Bank said the contraction had slowed considerably, eased by a boost in demand for Spanish exports which had made a 0.4-percent contribution to the country's gross domestic product during the quarter.

Spain, the eurozone's fourth-biggest economy, has been sunk in recession since mid-2011 and officially contracted by another 0.5 percent in the first quarter this year.

But the Spanish government has repeatedly signalled in the past month that the economy is about to get back on track on the wave of resurging exports.

Last week the government said Spain's trade deficit narrowed sharply in May.

Exports have been a rare bright spot for the Spanish economy which is struggling to recover from a 2008 property crash that has pushed the jobless rate up to a record 27 percent.

But Ben May, economist at London-based Capital Economics, said the economic situation was still fragile and it was too soon to say that the country is on the cusp of a recovery.

"We expect weak demand in Spain's major export destinations to mean that the boost from the external sector will fade over the coming quarters," he wrote in a research note.

"And with the fiscal squeeze, housing slump and private sector deleveraging set to continue for some time to come, domestic demand is likely to contract significantly further."

Capital Economics nonetheless revised its GDP forecasts for Spain higher on Tuesday.

It now sees the economy shrinking by around 1.7 percent this year, compared to a previous forecast of a 2.0 percent fall, and by as much as 1.5 percent in 2014.

The growth data came as Spain paid sharply lower rates to raise €3.52 billion ($4.63 billion) in three and nine month debt on Tuesday.

The average yield on three-month bills fell to 0.442 percent from 0.869 percent at the last auction in June while the yield on nine-month bills fell to 1.152 percent from 1.441 percent.

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EXPORTS

‘Trade has collapsed’: Germany sees business with UK slump after Brexit

Germany's exports ticked up in January on robust trade with China, but trade with another key trade partner, Great Britain, plummeted after the Britain left the EU.

'Trade has collapsed': Germany sees business with UK slump after Brexit
Southampton harbour. Photo:Andrew Matthews/DPA

The Brexit fallout has continued to hurt commerce with the United Kingdom, with federal statistics office Destatis recording a 29 percent plunge in German exports across the Channel.

Meanwhile, demand for UK goods in Germany collapsed by more than 56 percent, official data showed Tuesday.

Cross-Channel exporters have had to adapt to new customs requirements from January 1, following Britain’s 2016 decision to leave the European Union.

Firms on both sides have since complained of increased bureaucracy and shipment delays as they grapple with the new rules.

BREXIT: What changes in Germany from January 2021?

“Foreign trade with Britain has collapsed,” said LBBW bank economist Jens-Oliver Niklasch.

Overall, German exports rose 1.4 percent month-on-month in seasonally adjusted figures, Destatis said.

But imports sank as coronavirus shutdowns sapped consumer demand in Europe’s top economy.

Imports slumped 4.7 percent, widening Germany’s closely-watched trade surplus to 22.2 billion euros.

Compared with a year ago, before the pandemic ravaged the global economy, exports fell 8.0 percent in January and imports almost 10 percent.

“Consumer demand fell sharply in January due to a lack of opportunities” as the government kept non-essential shops, leisure and cultural centres closed to rein in the coronavirus,  Niklasch.

But demand for “made in Germany” goods was powered by vital trade partner China, which has recovered faster from the virus shock.

Exports to European Union countries plunged six percent year-on-year, while demand for EU goods within Germany was down by almost the same.

Combined with Germany’s struggles to bring down Covid-19 infections despite months of shutdowns, “the January reading is not an indication of renewed German export strength, but rather an alarm bell for the first quarter.”

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