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CHINA

Volkswagen plans giant car plant in China

German auto giant Volkswagen will build a plant in central China, a spokesman said Tuesday, as it battles US rival General Motors to be the top foreign automaker in the world's biggest car market.

Volkswagen plans giant car plant in China
Photo: DPA

The plant in the city of Changsha will start production in early 2016 with an annual output capacity of 300,000 vehicles, a Beijing-based spokesman for VW told news agency AFP.

“We are quite close to an official announcement. I think it will come this week,” the spokesman said, but declined to give an investment figure.

The move comes as VW battles US auto giant GM for dominance in the huge Chinese market, despite worries about over-capacity.

VW delivered 2.81 million vehicles in the country last year while GM sold 2.84 million, making them its biggest foreign automakers.

GM said this month it would build a $1.3 billion Cadillac plant in Shanghai after the Chinese government approved the project, as it seeks more luxury auto sales – which at present are dominated by German brands.

“The production expansion of foreign carmakers shows they see growth opportunities in China’s car market,” Jia Xinguang, managing director of industry group the China Automobile Dealers Association, told AFP.

China’s annual auto sales rose only 4.3 percent year-on-year to 19.31 million units in 2012, hit by limits on numbers imposed by some cities to ease traffic congestion and tackle pollution. But management consulting firm McKinsey last year predicted China’s passenger car market alone will grow an average eight percent annually to 2020.

VW currently has 12 vehicle and component plants in China, and the Changsha plant is a joint venture with Shanghai-based SAIC Motor, one of its existing Chinese partners.

“The location of Changsha may be a result of Volkswagen’s strategy to move production inland to central and western China and its consideration of local policies, which might offer tax incentives to support the investment,” Jia said.

An environmental assessment report conducted last year by the Hunan Research Academy of Environmental Sciences and posted on its website put the investment at 12.1 billion yuan ($2.0 billion).

VW’s head for China, Jochem Heizmann, told reporters last month the company was negotiating with Changsha authorities over the factory, part of its scheme to build seven new plants in the country, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

VW produced 2.6 million vehicles in China last year, with the rest of sales coming from imports, according to the group’s annual report.

It delivered nearly 770,000 vehicles in China in the first quarter of 2013, up more than 21 percent from the same period last year, according to an earlier statement.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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