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EUROPE

French debt making Europe ‘vulnerable’

The European Commission singled out France on Wednesday for some harsh warnings over serious public sector debt levels that could prove the Achilles heel for the entire eurozone.

French debt making Europe 'vulnerable'

As Socialist French President Francois Hollande seeks an extra year to meet EU deficit targets, a detailed report on significant macroeconomic imbalances across the bloc highlighted long-term problems Paris needs to address.

France's public debt "represents a vulnerability, not only for the country itself but also for the euro area as a whole," the report said.

The debt in 2012 was pegged at 90.3 percent of gross domestic product, above the EU average and half as much again as the notional 60-percent limit.

With the eurozone economy facing continued recession this year, that represents "a major challenge that France still needs to address," the commission said.

As Brussels presses for greater reforms, EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn stressed the importance of France to the 17-nation eurozone.

"France is a core country — in terms of its size and its geo-economic position," Rehn said. "Its health has a very direct impact on the overall health of the eurozone."

The Commission report said "the resilience of the country to external shocks is diminishing and its medium-term growth prospects are increasingly hampered by longstanding imbalances."

Citing a slump in export strength, "rigidities" in labour laws and the lowest profitability of companies in the euro area, it said that "high and increasing public debt is reducing the capacity of public finances to face potential adverse shocks and could result in negative spillovers to the whole economy."

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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