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ECONOMY

Stronger factory orders offer ‘rays of sunshine’

German factory orders jumped in February, driven by buoyant domestic and export demand, suggesting that rising confidence in Europe's biggest economy may finally be reaching the real economy, analysts said on Friday.

Stronger factory orders offer 'rays of sunshine'
Photo: DPA

Industrial orders jumped by 2.3 percent in February compared with January, making up for the 1.6-percent drop seen the previous month, the economy ministry said in a statement.

Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had been pencilling in a more modest gain of 1.2 percent for February.

“Growth in domestic orders accelerated noticeably by 2.2 percent and orders from overseas offset the previous month’s drop with an increase of 2.3 percent,” the ministry said.

The upward momentum was fuelled primarily by a sharp increase of 3.5 percent in orders for capital goods. Orders for semi-finished goods rose by 0.9 percent while orders for consumer goods edged up by 0.1 percent.

Using a two-month comparison to iron out short-term fluctuations, the ministry calculated that orders in January and February combined inched 0.1 percent higher compared with the same period a year earlier.

Analysts were encouraged by the unexpected rise in factory orders.

This “adds to today’s picture of the German industrial sector turning the corner after the dire end of 2012,” said Natixis economist Johannes Gareis.

“Germany’s little V-shaped recovery in the first quarter is on track, at least until February,” agreed Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz.

“The recovery in ‘soft’ confidence data has reached ‘hard’ data such as retail sales and industrial orders,” he said.

And German resilience “may turn out to be good news for the eurozone crisis countries, as their chances of exporting their way out of trouble improve with higher German demand,” the expert said.

ING DiBa economist Carsten Brzeski said the data represented “some rays of sunshine.”

The rise was “good news, as it shows that the industrial backbone is not running out of steam, but it is no reason to become overly cheerful,” Brzeski said.

UniCredit analyst Andreas Rees saw the data as “the first unambiguous signs of a turnaround in German hard data. It is not only the strong increase in the headline figure per se which is encouraging but especially its (balanced) composition.”

The economy ministry noted that the number of bulk or big-ticket orders — which tend to distort the headline figure — was slightly below average.

“Furthermore, both domestic and foreign demand rose to nearly the similar extent, thereby putting the German economy on a solid footing,” Rees said.

“To be crystal-clear, we think that today’s data is not a one-off,” he insisted.

AFP/hc

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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