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China’s export prowess needs German imports

China's crucial export sector is heavily reliant on imported German goods and would flounder without them, according to a new study.

Published: 20 March 2013 07:13 CET

China's export prowess needs German imports

Photo: DPA

A shortage of precision German machinery would leave Chinese industry in trouble, as most of the equipment used in the sector is German-made and plays a vital role in manufacturing goods it sells around the world, the study by the non-profit Bertelsmann Foundation said.

“German machinery plays a key role in Chinese industry,” said Helmut Hauschild from the Bertelsmann Foundation, which commissioned the study from the Prognos institute.

Reverse the roles, and China is an important provider of textiles and computers to Germany. Textile imports have grown significantly since 1992, when Chinese goods accounted for seven percent. They now make up over 30 percent.

Stronger still are Chinese imports of office equipment, computers and laptops which since 1992 have risen to make up 44 percent of that market.

Yet the study did suggest that China relied on Germany more than vice versa as China tended to export consumer goods – an area in which it did not have the monopoly.

And in order for Germany to maintain its importance to China, it must “invest in research and development to be able to stand up against domestic competition in the long-run,” Hauschild said.

DAPD/The Local/jcw

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How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year.

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’, Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn.

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment?

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024 about 1 percent below the estimated structural level.

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending?

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”. The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”.

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025.

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023.

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write.

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers.

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.”

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