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ECONOMY

Cyprus: German politics and ‘envy’ hurt bailout

Cypriot officials are hitting back at Germany with charges that German domestic politics and "envy" over the island's role as a financial hub are damaging efforts to seal an EU bailout before the eurozone nation sinks into bankruptcy.

Cyprus: German politics and 'envy' hurt bailout
Photo: DPA

German politicians have criticized plans to bail out Cyprus, saying its banks are havens for tax evaders and money launderers.

Cyprus’s request for EU financial aid for its debt-ridden economy has been undermined by damaging allegations it is a laundromat for dirty Russian money as international lenders call for greater transparency.

“The issue is a political one because of the German elections,” a government source told news agency AFP on condition of anonymity.

Cyprus sought out aid last June. But suspicions over banking sector transparency and Nicosia’s reluctance to push through tougher reforms such as privatization have delayed the urgently needed bailout, leaving the country on the brink of bankruptcy.

“We are making sure we comply with all recommendations of the International Monetary Fund and the Eurogroup to ensure these allegations go away,” said the

government source, referring to money-laundering charges.

“Another reason is that countries would like to have a piece of our pie as a financial centre,” the source added.

Former finance minister Michalis Sarris said the money laundering issue keeps resurfacing because it is a “sexy topic” that sells in the German media and the election campaign in that country.

“Cyprus has to be above suspicion and do more than is necessary to demonstrate it is a reputable financial centre,” Sarris told AFP.

He said under a draft bailout agreement, international lenders called for more transparency and a timely exchange of data when other countries request tax information.

“The government should ask for specifics and take the necessary measures required.”

Nicosia is now on the counter-offensive on the issue of financial crime.

“It is obvious that behind the attacks against Cyprus there are vested interests. Those who attack Cyprus want to take its role as a serious, international, financial and investment centre,” government spokesman Stefanos Stefanou told reporters on Thursday.

He said Cyprus was the fourth largest investor in Russia and the second biggest in Ukraine.

Fed up with negative reports alleging Cyprus to be a haven for the ill-gotten gains of Russian oligarchs, the Cypriot parliament is launching a campaign to defend the island’s “clean” reputation on the European stage. And the government says it welcomes closer scrutiny of its financial sector.

“We are doing everything within our power for the implementation of all international recommendations. We disagree with allegations that there is non-implementation of laws and regulations,” said central bank official Michalis Stylianou.

Eurogroup finance ministers made no decision on a rescue package for Cyprus

at a meeting in Brussels on Monday because negotiations on bank recapitalization are continuing. They said a decision would most probably be taken in March.

Outgoing Eurogroup president Jean Claude Juncker said this wait will also provide time for “close monitoring of the anti-money laundering” framework and its implementation.

Cyprus says it has adopted more international standards and recommendations than many of its fellow eurozone colleagues.

A Deutsche Bank report on the Cyprus debt crisis issued last week said there was an “excessive focus” on money laundering.

“It is rather Cyprus’s status as an offshore tax haven with a relatively opaque banking sector heavily used by foreign depositors that is under scrutiny,” said the report, referring to non-resident deposits of €24 billion, or $32 billion, much of it from Russia.

Nicosia called for a bailout in June when its banks, hit by the EU-imposed writedown on Greek debt, needed financial assistance.

In a draft agreement with the EU and IMF, the amount for the banks was set at up to €10 billion as part of a total package which could reach €17.5 billion – matching the output of the island’s entire economy.

Although Cyprus has pushed through harsh austerity measures of around €1.2 billion in tax hikes and savings, fellow EU partners have called for more reforms.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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