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ECONOMY

Growth slumps in 2012 as Q4 economy shrinks

The German economy, Europe's biggest, shrank in the fourth quarter of last year, leaving full-year growth at just 0.7 percent, official data showed on Tuesday. Berlin is reportedly expecting even less growth in 2013.

Growth slumps in 2012 as Q4 economy shrinks
Photo: DPA

The federal statistics office Destatis estimated that gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.5 percent in the last three months of 2012, after expanding by 0.5 percent in the first quarter, 0.3 percent in the second quarter and 0.2 percent in the third quarter.

Destatis is not scheduled to publish more precise fourth-quarter GDP data until next month.

But at the authority’s annual news conference to present its estimates for full-year growth figures, Destatis’ top statistician Norbert Räth gave a rough indication with respect to the fourth quarter.

“The full-year growth figure (of 0.7 percent) implies a contraction of around half a percentage point in the fourth quarter,” Räth said.

Despite the sharp slowdown in growth in the second half of last year, Destatis president Roderich Egeler pointed out that Germany was still faring much better than most of its European neighbours, many of which were in recession.

“Overall, the German economy proved itself to be very robust,” Egeler said. “Despite the European economic crisis, GDP expanded by 0.7 percent, driven particularly by robust foreign trade as well as domestic consumption,” Egeler said.

For the first time for five years, the overall state budget — which covers both the German government, the regional and municipal authorities, as well as the social welfare administration — showed a surplus of €2.2 billion ($2.9 billion), equivalent to 0.1 percent of GDP, Egeler added. In 2011, the overall state budget had shown a deficit ratio of 0.8 percent.

But the German government is reportedly expecting growth of only 0.5 percent this year, as the ongoing eurozone crisis drags on Europe’s largest economy.

The business daily Handelsblatt reported on Tuesday that Berlin will slash its previous growth forecast in half in its annual economic report due out later this week.

However, government officials see light at the end of the tunnel, penciling in gross domestic product growth of 1.25 percent in the final quarter of 2013. And the German labour market is expected to remain largely unscathed by the economic slowdown this year.

The prognosis assumes Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will continue to fester but not worsen dramatically, which would unsettle financial markets.

“The ongoing debt crisis in some eurozone countries still remains the biggest risk,” the paper quoted the report as saying.

The Local/AFP/DAPD/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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