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ECONOMY

Riksbank lowers interest rate to 1 percent

Citing a euro crisis-tainted economy and domestic thriftiness, Sweden's central bank on Tuesday cut the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the country's benchmark interest rate to 1.0 percent in order to stimulate inflation.

Riksbank lowers interest rate to 1 percent

“The weak developments in the euro area are clearly affecting the Swedish economy, which is now slowing down,” the Riksbank said in a statement.

It also noted that Swedes are spending less money, wages are not expected to increase at their usual rate, and unemployment has risen, all combining to create “low inflationary pressure”.

Sweden has a 2-percent inflation target.

“Swedish households and companies now have a more gloomy outlook, and consumption and investment are weak,” the statement read.

The governing board, however, hopes that Tuesday’s interest rate cut will keep Sweden on target inflation-wise all the way to 2014. It does not expect to alter the repo rate further during 2013.

Two of the bank’s six governors, however, wanted an even heftier cut.

Karolina Ekholm wanted the Riksbank to cut the repo rate down to 0.75 percent in early 2013 and communicate its intentions to do so now.

Lars E.O. Svensson wanted a similar cut to be put in place immediately and not wait for the New Year.

There were also outside critics who said the Riksbank should have acted more decisively and more swiftly during 2012.

“There is a lot to support an argument that the interest rate we had negatively affected the economy and has contributed to unemployment,” John Hassler, economics professor at Stockholm University, told TT.

Hassler does not think Tuesday’s cut will have any great effect as most players in the market had already forecast the rate cut and made adjustments accordingly.

The Riksbank also lowered its forecast for Swedish economic growth in 2013 to 1.2 percent, down from the previous forecast of 1.8 percent. The bank expects economic growth to pick up in 2014, however, rising to 2.7 percent.

Unemployment, according to the Riksbank, is expected to rise to 8.1 percent next year, slightly higher than the bank’s earlier forecast of 7.9 percent, before falling to 7.6 percent in 2014.

TT/The Local/at

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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