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ECONOMY

Merkel welcomes EU’s new banking watchdog

German Chancellor Angela Merkel Thursday praised a new EU accord to create a supervisor to oversee banks across the eurozone and urged the release of urgently needed funds for Greece.

Merkel welcomes EU's new banking watchdog
Photo: DPA

Addressing lawmakers in the Bundestag lower house of parliament, she said the deal clinched earlier in Brussels just hours before an EU summit was of inestimable value and had met German concerns.

“It cannot be valued highly enough that eurozone finance ministers agreed overnight on a legal framework and the outlines of a common supervisory mechanism for banks,” she said.

And she thanked German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, saying that Berlin’s “core demands” had been met in the agreement.

The complex bank supervision deal is a key step towards a banking union which EU leaders hope will ring-fence banks in trouble to prevent future crises.

It will allow eurozone banks to be recapitalised directly, rather than through governments, so as to avoid adding to their growing debt burden.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will manage the eurozone system in tandem with the London-based European Banking Authority, which covers all 27 EU states, and national supervisors.

From March 2014, banks with assets worth more than €30 billion or equal to 20 percent of a state’s economic output will come under the ECB remit.

The ECB will also have to right to intervene in cases involving smaller banks but it is expected that national supervisors will have the main responsibility in this category.

Turning to Greece, Merkel said she hoped the Eurogroup would approve the payment of the next tranche of aid for Greece later on Thursday, adding “anyone dealing with Greece’s circumstances knows that it is urgently necessary.”

“The implemented buy-back programme of state bonds has provided an important contribution to the improvement of its capacity to bear debt,” she added.

On Wednesday, Athens announced it had attracted offers worth €31.9 billion under the debt buy-back scheme.

The buy-back aims to cut Greece’s debt by about €20 billion and is vital to unblock pending loans from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, which were frozen earlier this year owing to reform delays.

AFP/bk

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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