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ECONOMY

German firms brace for tough 2013

Europe is in recession, but the majority of companies in Germany, the region's top economy, are continuing to defy the crisis, with strong and often better-than-expected results in the third quarter.

German firms brace for tough 2013
Photo: DPA

Nevertheless, the clouds are gathering above Germany too, and the chill winds from the global downturn are set to blow even harder here next year, causing companies to tighten their belts for what promises to be a difficult year.

While their strong overseas presence has helped shield German companies from the worst of the downturn in Europe so far, the prospect of an economic slowdown in China and an only tepid recovery in the United States is sending shivers through export-orientated German industry.

“The decline in output and revenues is going to be substantial in the fourth quarter and German companies know this,” said Heino Ruland, market strategist at Ruland Research.

Last week, industrial giant Siemens, one of Germany’s biggest companies, unveiled plans to slash costs by €6.0 billion over the next two years.

Chief executive Peter Löscher warned that the austerity drive would “have an impact on the workforce,” but declined to reveal any details just yet. Other companies are also trying to reduce overheads.

At the end of October, auto giant Daimler said it would aim to slash costs in its car division by €2.0 billion between now and the end of 2014.

In the banking sector, which is feeling the financial freeze more than most as low interest rates and tougher banking rules eat into profits, the winds blowing through the corridors of the country’s two biggest lenders, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, are also raw.

Deutsche Bank is planning to cut costs by an annual €4.5 billion by 2015 and 1,900 jobs in the investment banking division are already facing the chop.

Media reports say Commerzbank, too, which is planning to focus on its core retail banking business, could be readying to axe around 10 percent of its workforce.

Airline Lufthansa is similarly stepping up its cost-cutting after already announcing the loss of 3,500 administrative jobs.

BASF, the world’s biggest chemicals maker, is looking to save €1.0 billion by the end of 2015. And industrial gas specialist Linde, which turned in an excellent third quarter, is likewise hoping to lop €750-900 million off its annual bills.

“This will help to reinforce our high level of profitability even in a challenging environment,” said chief executive Wolfgang Reitzle.

German companies are no strangers to cost-cutting and “they know they have to continually adapt to changing economic conditions as they compete globally,” and with US, Japanese and Chinese companies in particular, said analyst Heino Ruland.

Portfolio rationalisation, streamlining purchasing and a more flexible workforce are the chosen options.

But boosting efficiency is not always about job cuts. “The biggest job cuts are taking place in Germany’s banking sector, not more cyclical industries, where companies want to keep hold of their specialised workforces,” said Baader Bank strategist Robert Halver.

So companies such as carmaker Opel or heavy industry giant ThyssenKrupp resort to measures such as short-time work.

It is thanks to instruments such as these that there is no wide-scale blood-letting in terms of jobs in Germany at the moment, said Halver.

A survey of insolvency and restructuring experts conducted by Ernst & Young found that 77 percent of those polled are expecting the number of restructuring cases to rise in the coming 12 months, with the shipping and auto industries the most likely to be affected.

Even as growth slows, unemployment in Germany is at its lowest since unification 20 years ago, at least in raw or unadjusted terms, even if the seasonally adjusted numbers are beginning to inch upwards.

AFP/bk

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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