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ECONOMY

French confidence at rock bottom

The French have rarely been as pessimistic about their future, according to data released on Friday, raising concerns they may cut back on consumption, the only remaining prop to economic growth in the country.

French confidence at rock bottom
Photo: Sacratomato hr

In October the French consumer confidence index fell one point over the month to hit 84 points, the INSEE national statistics agency said Friday.

The long-range average of the index is set at 100 points.

The index, which is an indicator of confidence of households and a guide to future spending, has fallen by seven points since May as pessimism sets in among French consumers.

The outlook of French consumers on their future financial situation dropped by 4 points, to a reading of minus 25 points.

Their outlook about future livings standards in France dropped another 3 points in October, for a cumulative drop of 28 points since June to touch the record low of minus 59 points set last November.

The growing pessimism about their future is prompting French consumers to try to put some money aside rather than spend.

"There are more households which feel it better to save," said INSEE, noting a 10 point gain in that sub-index since July.

"The increase in savings is a rather bad sign, in the sense that households are confronted with increases in unemployment and taxes which is leading them to save as a precaution," BNP Paribas bank economist Hélène Baudchon told AFP.

 "This will likely end up weighing on household consumption," she added.

Private consumption is currently the only sector still supporting growth in France.

The French economy has stalled with zero growth the past three quarters, and the government is counting on 0.8 percent growth next year to meet its EU commitments of pushing down the public deficit to 3.0 percent of gross domestic product.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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