SHARE
COPY LINK
NOBEL PRIZES 2012

NOBEL

US duo awarded Nobel economics prize

The 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to US economists Alvin E. Roth and Lloyd S. Shapley for the research that helps explain market processes, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced on Monday.

US duo awarded Nobel economics prize

The winners were awarded “for the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design”.

“This year’s prize is awarded for an outstanding example of economic engineering,” wrote the Nobel Committee in a statement.

According to the Committee, this year’s Prize “concerns a central economic problem: how to match different agents as well as possible”.

Shapley made early theoretical inroads into the subject, using game theory to analyze different matching methods in the 1950s and 1960s.

Together with U.S. economist David Gale, he examined “pairwise matching,” by looking at how 10 women and 10 men could be coupled up, while respecting their individual preferences.

The studies were carried out with a focus on “stable matching” – that being the most efficient matching as possible of, for example, students with schools or organ donors with patients.

Roth was later responsible for putting Shapley’s work into practice with research carried out in the 1980s and 1990s.

“Even though these two researchers worked independently of one another, the combination of Shapley’s basic theory and Roth’s empirical investigations, experiments and practical design has generated a flourishing field of research and improved the performance of many markets,” the committee wrote in a statement.

Staffan Normark, permanent secretary of the Royal Swedish Academy, explained that it was the perfect match of the two economists themselves that led to their work being recognized by the Nobel Committee.

“Lloyd Shapley is a giant in the field of game theory with a huge number of fantastic accomplishments,” he told The Local.

“I think this is a good match to put these two individuals together for this prize with all the theoretical work in the beginning and you have a really practical outcome developed quite recently by Roth with, for example the kidney transplant system in matchmaking.”

“I think it’s a beautiful combination.”

Roth said he was sleeping when he got the call from the prize committee in California, where he is a visiting professor at Stanford University.

“I wasn’t expecting the prize but I was aware it was being awarded today,” he said.

“I expected that Lloyd Shapley would win the prize.”

In terms about what the prize means, he joked:

“When I go to class this morning, my students will pay more attention now,” but added it was “too early” to speculate on how the win might affect the field.

Roth said he intends to travel to Stockholm for the Nobel award ceremony in December. When asked how he would celebrate, he said: “I haven’t made any plans yet; coffee.”

Roth, 60, is a professor at Harvard University in Boston. Shapley, 89, is a professor emeritus at University of California Los Angeles.

The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was the last of the 2012 Nobel awards to be announced.

It’s not technically a Nobel Prize, because unlike the five other awards it wasn’t established in the will of Alfred Nobel, a Swedish industrialist also known for inventing dynamite.

The economics prize was created by the Swedish central bank in Nobel’s memory in 1968, and has been handed out with the other prizes ever since. Each award is worth 8 million kronor ($1.2 million).

Last year’s economics prize went to U.S. economists Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims for describing the cause-and-effect relationship between the economy and government policy.

The 2012 Nobel Prizes in medicine, physics, chemistry and literature and the Nobel Peace Prize were announced last week. All awards will be handed out on December 10th, the anniversary of Nobel’s death in 1896.

Oliver Gee/AFP

Follow Oliver on Twitter here

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members

PROPERTY

Swedes have not been this pessimistic about house prices since 2008

House price optimism has taken a nosedive, according to the latest indicator report from Sweden's SEB bank. Sentiment among Swedes is now the most negative it has been since the 2008 financial crisis. What's going on?

Swedes have not been this pessimistic about house prices since 2008

How pessimistic are Swedish households? 

Very.

Households’ expectations for housing prices have fallen sharply this month, with SEB’s indicator dropping eleven percentage points in July, from -16 to -27, the lowest level it has hit since the financial crisis in 2008. 

The indicator, which has historically been a reliable predictor of house prices, turned negative in June for the first time since the pandemic hit in April 2020. 

The indicator is calculated by subtracting of the percentage of respondents who think house prices will fall from the percentage who think they will rise.

In July, the proportion of households surveyed who expected rising prices fell to 24 percent, down from 31 percent in June, while the proportion expecting falling prices rose to 51 percent from 47 percent. 

What is the reason for households’ pessimism? 

Américo Fernández, SEB’s private economist, told The Local that households in Sweden had reacted strongly to the decision of Sweden’s Riksbank central bank to hike rates, with most believing that the base interest rate would rise to 1.10 percent within a year.  At the same time, he said, households understood that inflation would reduce household spending power, making it harder for people to service large mortgages. 

“The result is not that surprising since inflation is on its highest levels since early 1990s and interest rates are increasing rapidly,” he told The Local. “These joint factors make it much more difficult for households to consume at the same high levels, meaning that they have decrease some of their consumption, and new mortgages and houses will be on that list.”.

He said it remained to be seen whether expectations improve again rapidly, as they did at the time of the pandemic, or would remain low. 

“Now the question is if this decline in expectations will turn around rapidly like during early pandemic (march/April 2020) or if it will continue in a negative slope like in the financial crisis of 2008.”

How badly has consumers’ spending power been hit by rate rises in Sweden? 

According to Christina Nyman, chief economist at Handelsbanken, a major Swedish bank, rising interest rates are already weighing on consumers’ buying power.

“For a household with loans of SEK 3m, this translates to additional costs of SEK 3,300 per month, which we believe is putting a cap on other consumption,” she said of the Riksbank’s rate increases so far. 

She warns in the bank’s most recent Global Macro Forecast that if the Riksbank speeds up its rate hikes, it could lead to a proper recession in Sweden.

“An acceleration of the rate-hike program could result in a drop in housing prices and a more severe recession,” she said.

Are we going to see a housing crash?

To qualify as a housing crash, home prices need to plummet by at least 15%, something which has not happened in Sweden since the 2008 financial crisis when prices in Sweden fell by as much as 20%, before rebounding gradually over the following years.

So far, it looks more like house prices in Sweden are set to decline more gradually, as there has been no new shock such as a stockmarket crash or banking crisis. 

How are homeowners responding? 

According to SEB’s report, 12 percent of households who currently have a fluctuating rate mortgage said in July that they are now planning to move to a fixed rate mortgage to avoid being hit by further rate hikes from the Riksbank, an increase of one percentage point from the June survey. 

The proportion who say they have already fixed the rate on their mortgage has risen by four percentage points to 37%. 

How might the average person be impacted?

Future buyers will profit from a drop in prices, despite all the suffering that frequently precedes a property catastrophe. On the other hand, the crash could be catastrophic for homeowners because they might have to sell their homes for less than what they paid.

Families who are forced to sell because they cannot afford their mortgage payments, for instance, or those who experience unemployment or illness, may therefore suffer significant capital losses.

SHOW COMMENTS