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ECONOMY

Britain insists Germany vetoed BAE deal

Britain's finance minister George Osborne insists Germany vetoed a merger bid by British arms maker BAE Systems and European aerospace giant EADS, British newspapers reported Saturday.

Britain insists Germany vetoed BAE deal
Photo: DPA

Although observers agree Germany this week torpedoed talks to create the world’s biggest aerospace and defence group, the comments by Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne were the strongest yet by a British minister on the matter.

They also contrast with comments by Germany’s economy minister Philipp Rösler, who rejected accusations that Germany should be blamed for the botched tie-up attempt.

“We have been a bit disappointed, primarily by Germany’s attitude, which in effect vetoed the deal,” Osborne was quoted as saying in British newspapers after briefing reporters on the sidelines of an IMF meeting taking place in Tokyo.

“I would like to have seen if we could have progressed those talks, even if that still meant the deal did not go ahead,” Osborne said, according to The Times.

“It is not that we (Britain) were committed to the deal — we just thought it worth discussing.”

The $45-billion (€34.7-billion) merger plan collapsed on Wednesday, leading the chief executive of EADS, Tom Enders, to express surprise at the level of resistance in Germany to the tie-up.

Analysts said Germany feared being sidelined after any such deal and was worried that jobs and factories could go with only one year until a general election in Europe’s top economy.

The merger talks had been reliant on agreement between the British, French and German governments. EADS is dominated by key stakeholders France and Germany, while Britain has a “golden share” in BAE that allowed it to block the tie-up.

The two companies had hoped to create a global champion in the fields of civil and defence aviation, that would compete more effectively with fierce US rival Boeing at a time of deep government cuts to defence spending.

AFP/mbw

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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