SHARE
COPY LINK

ECONOMY

‘We’re all doomed!’ say top economic think tanks

Germany's leading economic think tanks warned on Thursday there was a "great danger" that Europe's top economy could fall into recession, as they slashed their growth forecasts for next year in half.

'We're all doomed!' say top economic think tanks
Photo: DPA

The four institutes – Ifo in Munich, IfW in Kiel, IW in Halle and RWI in Essen – also lashed out at the European Central Bank, saying its latest anti-crisis measures risked fuelling inflation in the 17 countries that share the euro.

“The euro crisis is negatively impacting economic activity in Germany,” the institutes wrote in their joint twice-yearly forecasts, published here on Thursday.

“Should the situation in the eurozone continue to deteriorate, this will also impact the German economy. Over the forecasting period as a whole the downside risks prevail and there is a great danger that Germany will fall into a recession,” they warned.

While Germany clocked up growth of 0.5 percent in the first quarter and 0.3 percent in the second quarter, “there are currently a large number of signs that overall economic expansion will weaken towards the end of the year,” they wrote.

As a result, gross domestic product (GDP) was projected to grow by 0.8 percent overall this year and by 1.0 percent next year.

That marked a downgrade from the institutes’ previous spring forecasts when they had been pencilling in growth of 0.9 percent for this year and 2.0 percent for next year.

Furthermore, the latest forecasts were based on the assumption that the situation in the euro area, currently grappling with its worst-ever crisis, would stabilise.

If it did not then Germany, which has held up much better to the long-running crisis than its eurozone partners, could fall into recession, they said.

Turning to the ECB’s controversial decision to buy up the sovereign bonds of debt-wracked countries under its so-called OMT programme, the experts said such measures risked fuelling inflation in the single currency area.

The institutes “see the risk of a mid-term rise in inflation,” they said.

“This process could be triggered by the ECB effectively providing monetary financing for states. Europe’s citizens and players in the markets may lose trust in the ECB’s ability to ensure long-term price stability as a result,” the report said.

The ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme, as well as its predecessor the Securities Market Programme (SMP), have frequently come under heavy fire in Germany as being a covert way for the central bank to pay off countries’ debt by simply printing money.

“In the longer term there is a great danger that the ECB will continue to purchase bonds and provide excessive monetary policy stimulation even if states deviate from the adjustment programmes, which could drive up prices and lead to an increase in inflation expectations,” the institutes warned.

AFP/bk

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members

ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

SHOW COMMENTS