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French economy set to shrink: bank

France's economy is set to contract by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, the central bank confirmed Monday, in a forecast of further trouble for the eurozone's second-biggest economy.

If confirmed, it would be France's first contraction since it came out of recession in 2009 and follows zero growth for the past three quarters.

If followed by another negative quarter it would signal the French economy has entered a recession, which is commonly defined by economists as two consecutive quarters of contracting activity.

A forward-looking survey of business activity, the Purchasing Managers' Index compiled by survey firm Markit, has been running for months below 50 points, which indicates a likely contraction.

Markit said last month that French "PMI data currently suggest contraction is on the cards for" the period from July to September.

French President François Hollande said Sunday he expected economic growth to be "barely above zero" for 2012.

The government has forecast 0.3 percent growth for the year, while the OECD last week revised down its forecast for French 2012 growth to 0.1 percent.

Slower growth or a drop in revenues would make it more difficult for France to meet its EU obligations to cut its public deficit to 4.5 percent of gross domestic product this year.

The government has so far kept its 2013 forecast at 1.2 percent, which most economists now consider unreasonable.

Hollande said Sunday that the 2013 draft budget to be presented at the end of the month would be based on a realistic forecast, most likely 0.8 percent.

"I hope that we will do better than 0.8 percent, but hypothetically, we will work with that forecast," the president said in a nationally televised speech.

France has promised to squeeze its public deficit back to the EU limit of 3.0 percent of GDP next year, and Hollande has said this pledge must be honoured if the country wants to maintain its credibility on the markets.

To meet that obligation France will need to raise an extra €20 billion next year – half from businesses and half from households – in the biggest tax hike for at least the past three decades.

Another €10 billion in spending cuts will be made.

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ECONOMY

Worst of crisis now behind us, says Germany’s chief banker

Germany has turned the corner on the worst of an economic crisis sparked by the coronavirus pandemic and is now on the path to recovery, the central bank chief of Europe's biggest economy said Sunday.

Worst of crisis now behind us, says Germany's chief banker
Jens Weidmann. Photo: DPA

“We experienced in the last months the deepest economic slump in Germany's (post-war) history,” Jens Weidmann told Sunday's edition of the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

“The good news is: the trough should be behind us by now, and things are looking up again. But the deep slump is being followed only by a comparatively gradual recovery.”

Weidmann, who has never minced his words against expansionary policies ramped through in the past by the European Central Bank, on Sunday also voiced support for the unprecedented economic rescue and stimulus packages unleashed by Berlin to shield German companies and jobs.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's government had stunned observers in March when it unveiled a rescue package worth 1.1 trillion euros, smashing through a long-held no new debt dogma to fund the measures.

Earlier this month, it said it would plough another 130 billion euros into various schemes, including a cut in VAT, to stimulate the economy.

 

Reacting to comments that Germany, once known as a “frugal” nation, was now dramatically loosening its purse strings, Weidmann said: “The image of the Swabish housewife is often wrongly portrayed.

“She is not saving for the sake of saving, but so that there is money that can be spent sensibly and in case there are difficult times. And that is precisely the case here.”

Like nations across Europe, Germany shut schools, shops and sent workers home from mid-March to halt transmission of the coronavirus.

The impact of the health crisis has pushed the economy into a deep recession believed to be the worst since World War II.

After the rate of new infections dropped sharply, Europe's biggest economy began easing restrictions in early May although social distancing rules are still in place and huge events banned.

Nevertheless, the improved health situation and the huge government support have helped lift sentiment, with a closely-watched survey showing confidence among investors surging to its highest level since before the financial crisis.

 
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