SHARE
COPY LINK

ECONOMY

Zero growth for France in second quarter

France's economy managed zero growth in the second quarter of 2012, data showed Tuesday, beating expectations it would begin a slide into recession.

Zero growth for France in second quarter
Photo: sacratomato hr

In its first flash estimate for the second quarter, the national statistics institute INSEE said that French gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged.

That confounded expectations by many economists including the Bank of France that slowdown plaguing much of the eurozone would push France towards
recession.

French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici called the result "very weak" but held to the government's forecast for 0.3 percent growth in 2012.

Moscovici said on Europe 1 radio that zero growth "wasn't great" but "at the same time France is not in recession" unlike "most of our partners" in the
EU such as Spain, Italy and Britain.

A recession is commonly defined by economists as two consecutive quarters of contracting activity.

However France once again did less well than its principal partner, Germany, which posted 0.3 percent growth in the second quarter, according to
official data also published on Tuesday.

Eurostat was to later release its flash second quarter estimate for the eurozone, which posted flat growth in the first quarter.

France emerged from its last recession in the spring of 2009 but the economy has since struggled to gain momentum as the eurozone debt crisis has intensified, posting zero growth for the last three quarters.

Uncertainty over the fate of the euro and related problems in credit markets have resulted in investors either cancelling or delaying major spending decisions, with a Greek debt writedown and concern over Spanish banks hitting sentiment in the second quarter.

Meanwhile consumers have been hit as governments cut spending and raise taxes to reduce the deficits and debt that are behind the eurozone crisis.

The French construction and automobile industries have been hit particularly hard. New housing starts in the second quarter were 14 percent below 2011 levels while July car sales were down 7.0 percent on a year earlier.

With these job-intensive sectors struggling, unemployment has spiked.

Latest figures put the jobless total at nearly 10 percent of the workforce with a further 5.0 percent working fewer hours than they would like.

Given the deepening of the eurozone crisis in the second quarter "flat GDP shows resilience in the second quarter," said Berenberg Bank Senior Economist Christian Schulz.

"Despite the apparent resilience of French GDP, some worrying trends persist," he added, however.

He noted France is continuing to lose competitiveness to southern eurozone countries going through difficult adjustments, with imports continuing to outpace exports and taking the trade deficit to record highs.

The trade deficit took 0.5 percent off France's growth in the second quarter, after 0.1 percent in the first quarter.

Moreover France has yet to begin serious austerity, with government spending continuing to support the economy, he noted.

That poses a challenge to France's new Socialist government.

Elected in May on a jobs and growth ticket, President Francois Hollande faces an increasingly tough battle to deliver while simultaneously meeting a commitment to reduce France's budget deficit from around 4.5 percent of GDP this year to the EU limit of 3.0 percent by the end of 2013.

While Moscovici stuck to the government's latest forecasts of 0.3 percent growth in 2012 and 1.2 percent in 2013, they are considered optimistic by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of France.

Slower growth would force the government to make greater cuts or raise more taxes to meet its deficit targets.

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members

ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

SHOW COMMENTS