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ECONOMY

Economic clouds gather despite strong GDP

Germany, Europe's biggest economy, is still growing but the outlook is becoming increasingly clouded by "substantial risks" from the debt crisis, the economy ministry warned Friday.

Economic clouds gather despite strong GDP
Photo: DPA

“In a difficult European environment, the German economy is continuing to show itself to be fairly robust,” the ministry said in its latest monthly report.

Gross domestic product (GDP) “is expected to have expanded moderately again in the second quarter, as suggested by the available indicators for private consumption and external trade,” it said.

“Nevertheless, following the strong growth seen in the first quarter, the momentum will have slowed noticeably given the weaker international trend. The debt crisis in a number of euro area countries is continuing to weigh, fuelling uncertainty,” the report continued.

“The further outlook for the German economy will remain cautious for the time being and is burdened by substantial risks.”

While many of Germany’s eurozone partners are in recession, the bloc’s economic powerhouse notched up growth of 0.5 percent in the first three months of this year.

But with much of Europe in the doldrums, German exports, too, are beginning to falter and some analysts believe the economy as a whole could have ground to a halt in the second quarter.

Official second-quarter GDP figures are scheduled to be published next week.

A raft of recent economic data suggests that Germany’s growth momentum is

indeed fading.

Exports, which grew 4.1 percent in May, fell 1.5 percent in June, hit by falling shipments to the other 16 countries of the eurozone, according to the latest data compiled by the national statistics office Destatis.

Imports – a barometer of domestic demand – were down, too, falling by 2.9 percent.

The slump in demand is hitting industry and the manufacturing sector, the backbone of the German economy, separate data published by the economy ministry showed.

Factory orders fell by a bigger-than-expected 1.7 percent in June, more than wiping out the modest increase seen the previous month, while industrial output declined 0.9 percent.

New car registrations – a key gauge of demand in one of the most important industrial sectors – fell sharply last month, retail sales are also in decline and unemployment is on the rise again, which could hurt consumer spending.

Last month, business confidence dropped for the third month in a row and investor confidence hit a six-month low.

The Local/bk

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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