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ECONOMY

ECB ‘could oppose Germany and buy bonds’

A highly anticipated meeting of the European Central bank ended in disappointment on Thursday, with ECB head Mario Draghi failing to announce any concrete measures to stop the Eurzozone crisis.

ECB 'could oppose Germany and buy bonds'
Mario Draghi didn't say what many had hoped for on Thursday. Photo: DPA

Draghi said the ECB would gear up to buy Italian and Spanish bonds on the open market – but would only act after eurozone governments activate bailout funds to do the same.

So far Germany has remained mum on Draghi’s “possible bond-buying” statement – an option it has vehemently objected to in the past.

Draghi said all 23 members of the Governing Council endorsed Thursday’s statement with one exception – a reference to Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann.

“It’s clear and it’s known that (Germany’s) Bundesbank have their reservations about the programme of buying bonds. The idea is we now have the guidance, the monetary policy committee, the risk committee and the markets committee will work on this guidance and then (we) will take a final decision and the votes will be counted.”

Draghi’s wording implied he may be prepared to outvote the Germany if necessary.

The markets were unimpressed by Draghi’s announcement, having anticipated a more concrete measure. He had raised expectations to fever pitch with a vow last week to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the embattled single currency.

In addition to his promise to intervene possibly on the bond markets, Draghi stepped up his verbal rhetoric, warning traders that speculating against the euro was a lost cause.

Reiterating that the euro was “irreversible”, he said: “It’s pointless to bet against the euro.”

But he failed to back up his talk with action, analysts complained.

“The ECB did not change its monetary policy nor did it provide us with details about possible future actions,” complained Alexandra Estiot, analyst at BNP Paribas.

“Stress on sovereign debt markets has to be addressed and the ECB could help. But once more, the ECB threw the ball back in the politicians’ court,” she said.

The euro fell to $1.22, after briefly topping $1.24, its highest rate since June 5.

Earlier in the day, the ECB said it would keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75 percent.

The Local/afp/sh

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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