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ECONOMY

France ‘to blame for euro woes’

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti on Wednesday said the root of Europe's debt woes lay partly in the irresponsible parenting of Germany and France during the bloc's infancy.

Monti told reporters in Tokyo that because the eurozone’s two largest players had not abided by fiscal rules, they had set a bad example for the rest of the continent.

“The story goes back to 2003 (and) the still almost infant life of the euro,” Monti said.

“It was in fact Germany and France that were loose concerning the public deficits and debts.”

The widely-respected technocrat, who replaced billionaire media magnate Silvio Berlusconi in November as head of the eurozone’s third largest economy, said the flouting of rules allowing for an annual budget deficit of no more than three percent of GDP was the issue.

He said despite recommendations, a meeting of ministers from European Union governments had decided not to punish France and Germany for going beyond the deficit limit.

“So the two largest countries in the eurozone had the (deficit) with complicity of Italy, which was then chairing under the rotation system the council of prime ministers of European Union.

“Of course if the father and mother of the eurozone are violating the rules, you could not expect… (countries such as) Greece to be compliant.”

Monti, who was speaking during a visit to Japan, was a member of the European Commission in the early 2000s when it recommended sanctions be levied against countries that were running over-the-top deficits.

The European Council – comprising elected politicians – vetoed the move.

Monti’s visit to Japan comes as Europe continues to stagger under the weight of runaway sovereign debt, with Greece at the forefront.  

The eurozone is under pressure to boost the firepower of its debt rescue fund, with the 34-nation OECD on Tuesday pressing for a safety net of at least €1.0 trillion ($1.33 trillion).

Eurozone finance ministers are meeting on Friday and Saturday in Copenhagen to decide whether to increase the size of their debt rescue mechanism amid resurgent concerns about the financial health of Spain.

The OECD said the refinancing needs of vulnerable eurozone nations could top a trillion euros over the coming two years, on top of cash needed to recapitalise banks.

Italy alone needs some €750 billion to finance its debt, while Spain requires around €370 billion over the next three years.

Asked about the size of the hike in the eurozone firewall, Monti declined to give a specific figure but said: “I’m confident that the compact is solidly in place, the time for a conclusive and adequate decision on the firewalls has come.”

The premier, who was due to meet his Japanese counterpart later in the day, said he believed Europe now had a handle on its debt crisis and Italy was unlikely to suffer at the hands of the markets the way that Spain had.

“I think contagion (is) certainly not from Spain. Spain is I’m sure on a steady course of budgetary consolidation. 

“And contagion as a whole I hope will soon belong to the past, now that more discipline is being adhered to by most member states and now that the firewalls are in the process of being fortified,” he added.

The Copenhagen meeting will also focus on Spain’s plans to rein in its public deficit to 5.3 percent of gross domestic product.

European leaders are concerned over Spain’s deficit, fearing it may become the biggest victim of a eurozone debt crisis that has already driven Greece, Ireland and Portugal to accept international bailouts.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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