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TRADE

Exports top €1 trillion despite euro crisis

German exports topped €1 trillion for the first time in 2011, but fell at year-end as the eurozone debt crisis hit demand for goods made in Germany, official data showed on Wednesday.

Exports top €1 trillion despite euro crisis
Photo: DPA

Europe’s biggest economy exported €1.06 trillion ($1.4 trillion) in the whole of last year, exceeding the one-trillion mark for the first time, the national statistics office Destatis said in a statement. Imports also rose to a record €902 billion.

Exports declined by 4.3 percent in December alone to their lowest level since April, as the effects of the region’s debilitating debt crisis increasingly made themselves felt, the data showed.

And with imports also falling by 3.9 percent, Germany’s trade surplus – which had ballooned to €158.1 billion throughout the whole of 2011 – contracted to €13.9 billion in December.

The full-year data place Germany as the world’s number two exporter behind China which posted exports worth a total €1.432 billion and a trade surplus of €117 billion in 2011.

China, along with the eurozone’s second-biggest economy, France, are Germany’s main trading partners.

But France posted a trade deficit of almost €70 billion in 2011. France has a structural trade deficit and is increasingly looking to the German model as a guide to raising competitiveness and exports.

On a 12-month basis, exports to fellow eurozone countries – which buy around 40 percent of all German exports – declined by 3.3 percent in December, while exports to countries outside the single currency area jumped by 14.7 percent.

“It was a bad December through and through,” said Commerzbank economist Ulrike Rondorf.

“Following the plunge in industrial production, the steep fall in exports is the second poor German data release for December,” she said.

Economy Ministry data on Tuesday showed German industrial production dropping by a bigger-than-expected 2.9 percent month-on-month in December after stagnating in November.

On one hand, the trade data probably reflected feeble demand, particularly in the eurozone, Rondorf said. On the other, it could be partially attributable to calendar effects, the economist suggested.

“We expect the German economy to have contracted by 0.3 percent in the final quarter of 2011 compared with the third quarter,” she said.

Annalisa Piazza at Newedge Strategy also said the trade figures “don’t bode well for gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, as the contribution to growth might be negative over the quarter.”

She estimated that German GDP contracted by around 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the October-December period.

“But we see downside risks now that net exports have been quite poor in December and industrial output showed a large contraction in activity in December,” the economist said.

“That said, prospects for 2012 remain relatively optimistic. Business confidence indicators have returned in expansionary territory in January and there are signs of consolidation in the German labour market that – in the medium term – will continue to support domestic demand,” Piazza said.

The statistics office Destatis has already estimated that GDP likely shrank by “around a quarter of a percentage point” in the fourth quarter of 2011. More concrete numbers are scheduled to be published next week.

Economy Minister Philipp Rösler said that while 2011 as a whole had been a record year for German exporters, the situation was “currently more difficult, in view of the current phase of weakness.”

Nevertheless, the German economy “remains highly competitive and will know how to use its growth opportunities when the global economy recovers,” the minister said.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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