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ANGELA MERKEL

Rays of light as Merkel seeks eurozone fixes

Ratings agency Fitch offered a ray of light for the eurozone Tuesday as German Chancellor Angela Merkel met IMF chief Christine Lagarde on Greece's struggle to cut its debt, amid tentative signs of progress.

Rays of light as Merkel seeks eurozone fixes
Photo: DPA

While the agency said Italy was the most worrying of the embattled eurozone countries and could see its credit rating cut this month, it also said France’s top triple-A rating was safe for 2012 barring any significant economic shocks.

Speculation has raged for months that France, the second largest economy in the eurozone, could lose its gold standard rating, plunging the bloc further into turmoil.

Continuing a flurry of diplomatic activity to find a solution to the crisis, Merkel hosted Lagarde in Berlin, a day ahead of a planned meeting with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti.

A statement for the Washington-based IMF confirmed Lagarde held talks with other German officials, including Economy Minister and vice-Chancellor Philipp Rösler and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble.

“We do not expect to provide any specific readouts from these meetings, or offer further comments,” the spokesperson said.

Lagarde made no comments to reporters on the sidelines of the talks and no public statements were scheduled.

Following her tete-a-tete with Merkel, Lagarde was expected to travel to her native France for talks on Wednesday with President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Meanwhile, in Greece, the subject of most of these talks, progress appeared to be forthcoming on a deal with private creditors to accept losses that would help wipe €100 billion ($128 billion) off its debt mountain of €350 billion.

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos told his ministers that an agreement with banks could be reached by early next week, Greek news reports said.

“We are about to finalise shortly the negotiations on private sector involvement” in reducing Greece’s debt, the EU’s economic affairs commissioner Olli Rehn said at an economic seminar at the European Parliament.

International auditors are due back in Greece next week to take stock of the country’s economy after Papademos warned of an “uncontrolled default” in March without further aid.

Having already received most of a €110 billion rescue package from the EU and IMF in 2010, Greece reached a preliminary accord for a second €130 billion bailout with the eurozone in October.

However this rescue package depends on private investors accepting a major writedown on the value of their holdings of Greek debt.

Merkel said on Monday that Athens must also ensure the “rapid implementation” of reform measures, warning that “otherwise it will not be possible to pay the next (aid) tranche to Greece.”

Nevertheless, despite small steps towards a deal in Greece, investor confidence in the eurozone still appeared shaky with banks’ deposits with the European Central Bank hitting a new record.

This suggested continuing tensions in the financial system despite unprecedented injections of liquidity.

In a key test of market sentiment, Athens paid slightly lower but still high rates to raise €1.6 billion ($2.08 billion) in six-month treasury bills, finding solid demand.

Austria, in contrast, paid higher funding costs to sell four-year bonds than at a previous auction, suggesting investors were uneasy over the country’s exposure to Hungary.

An EU spokesman said Rehn would hold talks with Hungarian negotiators on January 20 to discuss a request for financial aid and a disputed central bank law.

Budapest sought help from the IMF and EU in November after its currency plunged, but creditors cut short initial talks over the central bank reforms which they said would end the Hungarian institution’s independence.

European stocks rallied and the euro rose against the dollar after sliding to its lowest level since September 2010 as Chinese data and upbeat US company results overshadowed fears over the eurozone debt crisis, dealers said.

Traders also noted the Danish EU presidency rejecting a bid to tax financial transactions across the 27-member bloc, and also cautioning against the eurozone imposing the tax on its own, as suggested by Paris and Berlin.

Denmark also said Tuesday it opposed adding a “golden rule” requiring balanced budgets to their national constitution as part of a proposed new pact enforcing tighter budgetary discipline, a key effort by European nations to convince markets they are getting to grips with the long-term overspending behind its current debt crisis.

AFP/mdm

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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