Ratings agency Fitch provided some relief to the French government on Tuesday when it said the country looked unlikely to be downgraded from its prized triple-A rating in 2012.

"/> Ratings agency Fitch provided some relief to the French government on Tuesday when it said the country looked unlikely to be downgraded from its prized triple-A rating in 2012.

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ECONOMY

Fitch reassures France on AAA rating

Ratings agency Fitch provided some relief to the French government on Tuesday when it said the country looked unlikely to be downgraded from its prized triple-A rating in 2012.

“In the absence of important shocks that could be linked to a strong worsening of the situation in the eurozone, Fitch does not foresee modifying its negative outlook before 2013,” a spokesman said.

The news sent stock prices in Paris higher with the CAC40 index closing up 2.66 percent.

The news marked a positive shift in tone after Fitch changed its outlook for France in December from “stable” to “negative.”

There was worse news for Italy as the agency said it could see its credit rating cut this month.

“Italy is the front line of this crisis,” said David Riley, the head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch. 

France has embarked on a round of budget cuts to try to preserve its AAA-rating while ministers have continued to insist that a rating cut would be unwelcome but manageable. 

President Nicolas Sarkozy said in December that a cut would be “another difficulty, but not an insurmountable one.”

Meanwhile, the head of the French central bank provoked cross-channel clashes later in the month when he suggested that Britain should be downgraded first.

“They should start by degrading the United Kingdom, which has greater deficits, as much debt, more inflation and less growth than us,” Christian Noyer said.

The remarks caused a brief volley of insults before calm was restored.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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