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ECONOMY

Germany and France end tussle over key ECB job

The European Central Bank put an end Tuesday to a bitter battle between France and Germany over a key post within the bank by naming a Belgian to the highly coveted position of chief economist.

Germany and France end tussle over key ECB job
Photo: DPA

The ECB said executive board member Peter Praet of Belgium would be taking over as the head of its economics department, succeeding Jürgen Stark of Germany, who stepped down at the end of 2011.

Praet, who turns 63 later this month and has been a member of the ECB’s executive board since June 2011, “will be responsible for economics, human resources, budget and organization” under a redistribution of responsibilities following the changeover of two board seats, the ECB said in a statement.

The decision came as a surprise since two incoming board members, Jörg Asmussen of Germany and Benoit Coeure of France, had been seen as the top rival candidates to take over the key economics portfolio.

Asmussen, however, will be responsible for international and European relations, meaning he will be the ECB’s representative at international meetings and attend meetings of the so-called Eurogroup and ECOFIN.

He would also be responsible for legal services and overseeing the building of the ECB’s new premises and the central bank’s permanent representation in Washington.

Coeure will take charge of information systems and market operations.

The other three members of the six-member board – which is responsible for the day-to-day running of the ECB – are bank president Mario Draghi of Italy, vice-president Vitor Constancio of Portugal and Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo of Spain.

Both Berlin and Paris had laid claim to the coveted economics portfolio in recent months amid deepening differences over the role the ECB should take in the eurozone debt crisis.

Ever since the shock announcement in September that Stark was leaving early – he was the ECB’s economist since 2006 and his contract would normally have stayed to May 2014 – Germany had assumed its number two at the finance ministry, Jörg Asmussen, would automatically take over.

But Paris threw its hat into the ring in November in the person of Coeure, chief economist at the French economy and finance ministry and number two at the French treasury.

Ever since the ECB was set up, the position of chief economist has been held by a German – first Otmar Issing and then Stark.

However, the rule is not set in stone and, according to the ECB’s statutes, appointments are not made according to nationality, but expertise and competence.

Furthermore, the distribution of the different portfolios on the executive board is not tied to a specific seat, so Asmussen was not guaranteed to assume the position of chief economist automatically.

Nevertheless, Berlin was keen to retain that particular post in order to cement the ECB’s strong anti-inflation credentials it inherited from the powerful German central bank, the Bundesbank.

Perhaps significantly, Praet was actually born in Germany, even he if holds Belgian nationality.

Praet holds a doctorate in economics from Brussels university, was chief economist at Fortis Bank and then chief of staff for the Belgian finance minister before serving as executive director of the National Bank of Belgium between 2000 and 2011.

The tug-of-war for the post of chief economist highlights the increasingly diverging views of Paris and Berlin over the ECB’s role in fighting the sovereign debt crisis that is threatening to push the world into recession.

France wants the ECB to become a lender of last resort, with the firepower to prevent debt-ridden eurozone members from falling victim to the bond markets.

But Germany is vehemently opposed, scarred by its experiences between the two world wars when its central bank printed unlimited amounts of money to stave off an economic slump, resulting in hyperinflation and the eventual rise of Nazism.

This time around, in addition to inflation concerns, Berlin is worried that allowing the ECB to ride to the rescue will reduce the incentive for fiscally recalcitrant states to take the tough medicine needed to stabilize their public finances.

AFP/bk

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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