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ECONOMY

Politics played a role in Stark’s exit from ECB

Political reasons played an important role in his decision to leave his job at the European Central Bank, outgoing ECB chief economist Jürgen Stark told the Wirtschaftswoche magazine.

Politics played a role in Stark's exit from ECB
Photo: DPA

This is the first time Stark has made such an admission, the magazine said. Previously he said he was leaving the bank for “personal reasons.” Stark will leave the bank at the end of the year.

Stark said a big reason behind his decision to leave the bank is that he “was not happy with the way the currency union had developed.” He said politicians did not realize the seriousness of the euro problems in time, saying they “didn’t see it as an acute problem” when it already was. He said in the early days of the troubles, eurozone countries possessed policy instruments to fix the problems, but the depth of the troubles was not recognized.

Stark defended his consistent opposition to allowing the ECB to buy up state bonds. “This is not a solution,” he said, “even though around 90 percent of the self-named or actual experts around the world are calling for this.”

Those who point to the Federal Reserve in the United States as an example of how a central bank can buy up government debt do not understand the institutional framework in place in Europe, he said.

“A fundamental principle of this currency union is that the monetary financing of state debt via the ECB is not allowed,” Stark told the magazine. “Without this rule, there would not have been an economic and currency union.” Since May, 2010, the ECB has purchased about €210 billion in state bonds. Such purchases are limited and cannot be expanded, Stark said.

Still, the chief economist is pleased with the ECB’s work. “The ECB has completely fulfilled its job of maintaining price stability,” he told the magazine. “It also out pointed out in a timely manner troubled developments within the eurozone,” he said.

But Stark is unhappy with the developments in Greece. He said since Greece made some efforts at getting its debt under control, its reform tempo has slowed and efforts have been whittled down. Things are not better under the new Greek government, he added.

“Greece is making it too easy when it says that the country is suffering from a systematic crisis in Europe. You can’t put the guilt on someone else when you haven’t done your own homework,” Stark said.

The Local/mw

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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