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CHINA

Chinese agency cuts France’s credit rating

Chinese rating agency Dagong said Thursday it had cut its sovereign credit rating for France as the deepening eurozone debt crisis hurts economic growth and threatens Paris's solvency.

The cut to Europe’s second biggest economy came as the region’s leaders prepare for a summit in Brussels that many hope will see them agree on a plan to save the euro from collapse.

Dagong, which has little influence outside China, cut France’s local and foreign currency sovereign credit rating to “A+” from “AA-” with a negative outlook, adding that a further downgrade was possible.

“We believe that the economic slowdown is worse than expected and the economy will remain sluggish over the medium term,” Dagong said in a statement.

External risks to France’s financial system and the rising cost of financing for the government and institutions “undermine the solvency of the French government”, it added.

It is the second European country in as many days to see its credit rating reduced by the controversial Chinese firm.

Dagong on Wednesday cut Italy’s rating from “A-” to “BBB” with a negative outlook due to the country’s growing reliance on the European Central Bank to buy its bonds and its declining ability to repay debt.

Standard & Poor’s this week placed 15 eurozone countries, including Italy, on negative credit watch – a warning of a possible imminent cut in their sovereign credit ratings, which could increase their borrowing costs.

Despite its lack of sway in international markets, Dagong has made headlines by accusing mainstream agencies Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s of causing the 2008 financial crisis by not properly disclosing risk.

Chairman Guan Jianzhong, a paid adviser to China’s government, insists his agency is fully independent – and stands by his tough talk about his rivals, whose ratings affect interest rates at which states and companies can borrow.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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