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ANGELA MERKEL

Germany’s leadership to euroblivion

With Europe's sovereign debt crisis now threatening the survival of the euro, Germany will need to do more than simply force austerity on its neighbours, writes The Local's Marc Young.

Germany's leadership to euroblivion
Photo: DPA

It isn’t easy being German chancellor these days.

For months, Angela Merkel was accused of failing to provide leadership during Europe’s debt crisis. But after she prescribed austerity for debt-hit eurozone members, rejected issuing joint eurobonds and blocked making the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort, it now appears as if many in Europe preferred her previous lack of engagement.

And as the crisis has festered in recent weeks, ugly images of a bossy Germany have sprouted up from Athens to London.

Part of the British press, never keen to miss a chance to trot out tired Nazi clichés, has tastelessly made references to a Fourth Reich and portrayed German leaders as dictating economic terms to the rest of the Continent. Some Greeks have even taken to putting Merkel in a Nazi uniform along with their liberal use of swastikas at demonstrations.

Despite the cheap attacks – and some solid arguments for eurobonds – the German government’s line has stayed firm: Berlin does not want to put more German taxpayer money on the line until Greece, Portugal and Italy put their finances in order. Jointly issuing debt would undoubtedly raise German borrowing costs – while potentially taking the pressure off more profligate countries.

The Germans are also extremely leery of making the ECB a so-called lender of last resort for euro members unable to borrow on the jittery financial markets. Amid collective memories of hyperinflation between the wars, Germany remains the strongest advocate against having the central bank print money with abandon.

Germany’s economy has so far remained relatively unscathed by the debt crisis, but a poorly received bond auction last week set off a few alarm bells in Berlin. While the Finance Ministry played down the significance, some investors are apparently now looking to bond safe havens outside the eurozone.

There are good reasons against issuing eurobonds and making the ECB a lender of last resort, but many economists now consider either one or the other will be necessary to keep the eurozone from breaking apart.

And the longer the debt crisis continues the fewer options Merkel would seem to have.

Marc Young

[email protected]

twitter.com/marcyoung

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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