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ECONOMY

Berlin faces isolation on ECB euro rescue role

Germany faced mounting pressure Sunday to let the European Central Bank (ECB) save the crisis-hit eurozone, as reports surfaced of IMF contingency bailout planning for a re-modelled Italy.

Berlin faces isolation on ECB euro rescue role
Photo: DPA

With bond market vultures circling even gold-plated economies, and Italy’s La Stampa daily citing IMF officials on a rescue plan worth up to €600 billion ($794 billion), another of Germany’s closest Triple A-rated allies jumped ship on the ECB’s role to leave Berlin isolated.

Amid predictions that the currency faces its death throes within weeks failing radical intervention, Austria joined Finland in backing ECB action to stem financial market contagion threatening Italy, Spain and even France.

The pressure has intensified since Germany itself struggled to raise public finance on commercial money markets, in a potential tipping point for the balance of power within the eurozone on the painful debate about integrating public finance across borders.

“The European Central Bank could perform a more powerful role, as in the United States,” Austrian Prime Minister Werner Faymann said, also giving his support to the creation of commonly-issued eurobonds.

“It could itself buy states’ bonds,” he said on the sidelines of a congress of European Socialist parties in Brussels.

That meant a large-scale ramping up of carefully targeted action on the sell-on, secondary bond market, trying to prevent interest rates for Italy or Spain from skyrocketing to the levels that forced bailouts on Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

The scope for direct ECB action at primary level, as long sought by US, British and other G7 partners among the world’s most powerful economies in an accelerating crisis, will be the unspoken nub of euro finance ministers’ talks on Tuesday night in Brussels.

Finland’s finance minister Jutta Urpilainen said Friday: “I think we have seen that if there is nothing else left then we can think about strengthening the role of the ECB.”

In Strasbourg last week for a mini-summit with France and Italy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said politicians should not intervene in ECB decision-making.

“The French president has just underlined that the European Central Bank is independent,” she said, but a smiling Sarkozy interjected: “All three of us said that with respect for the independence of this institution, one should refrain from positive or negative demands of the ECB.”

The Financial Times Deutschland interpreted that exchange as proof that France, the most vociferous eurozone backer of a turbo-charged ECB role at the heart of the continent’s politics, was winning the day.

“By committing to silence, Merkel and Sarkozy are freeing the ECB to make a more forceful intervention in the crisis,” it said.

A French government source said pressure has been piled on Merkel for months, citing the meeting alongside new Italian premier Mario Monti and an invitation for US President Barack Obama to join a French-German huddle in Cannes during a G20 summit last month.

“The idea was to point out to Merkel that, even Monti, who is willing to go much further than Berlusconi was in reforming Italy, won’t make it without ECB intervention – the way all other central banks act,” said the source.

The IMF loans, at rates of 4.0 percent or 5.0 percent, would give Monti a window of 12 to 18 months to implement urgent budget cuts and growth-boosting reforms “by removing the necessity of having to refinance the debt,” La Stampa quoted an IMF official as saying.

In Paris, the view is clear: unless Merkel turns completely, not even Germany will be able to stand in the way of market pressures.

It is a position adopted by many economists, the outspoken Jacques Attali going as far in one interview as to say the real question, rather than a threat to France’s Triple A rating, was “will the euro still exist at Christmas?”

Britain’s banks have started drawing up contingency plans for the possible dismantling of the eurozone, a senior official at its Financial Services Authority said last week.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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