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ECONOMY

Bundesbank boss: ECB no lender of last resort

The European Central Bank should not act as lender of last resort for struggling eurozone countries, the head of Germany's central bank said on Tuesday, warning it could destroy its independence.

Bundesbank boss: ECB no lender of last resort
Photo: DPA

Speaking at a conference in Berlin, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann also said he was confident that both Spain and Italy could manage their current difficulties without recourse to outside aid.

“There are compelling reasons why we should stick to the independence of the central bank, especially in difficult times,” Weidmann said, according to the text of a speech provided by his office.

The ECB “does not have the mandate – it is even forbidden – to finance the budgets of member states,” the central banker added.

“If it took on a lender of last resort role for highly indebted member states, it would overshoot its mandate and call into question its independence,” Weidmann said. “There would be significant stability risks attached to this path.”

Pressure on the ECB to step in and backstop the debts of weaker member states has increased amid a crippling economic crisis that threatens to tip the 17-nation zone into recession. But the ECB has steadfastly refused to go further than their current programme, already controversial, of buying the bonds of distressed countries to help ease the pressure on them.

Two top German central bankers, former Bundesbank chief Axel Weber and ECB chief economist Jürgen Stark, have already stepped down in protest at the bond-buying programme, saying it compromised the ECB’s cherished independence.

Weidmann later received the backing of German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble who told parliament: “We will do everything necessary to combat the dangers for the stability of the euro as a whole.

“But only in such a way to ensure that the common (euro) currency remains a stable currency … a stable currency with an independent central bank and a central bank that is not available to finance states,” said Schäuble to loud applause.

Turning to the domestic economy, central bank chief Weidmann said: “I currently do not see a recession in Germany. “However, all forecasts have an unusually high degree of uncertainty attached to them. We will only be spared a recession if the current crisis of confidence does not escalate further,” he cautioned.

He said Germany had a responsibility, as Europe’s top economy, “to act as an anchor of stability in the European monetary union.”

Schäuble also echoed these sentiments, saying that the German economy is “still strong” despite the crisis. “We are still the growth motor in Europe. We are still the stability anchor in Europe,” the minister said.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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