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ECONOMY

Chief ECB economist Jürgen Stark to resign

European Central Bank chief economist Jürgen Stark resigned in a shock announcement Friday, sending the euro and European stock markets into freefall as fears about the debt crisis deepened.

Chief ECB economist Jürgen Stark to resign
Photo: DPA

In a short statement, the ECB said that the 63-year-old German had decided to resign “for personal reasons” before the end of his term of office in May 2014.

The announcement sent the markets into a tailspin, with the euro falling below $1.37 for the first time since February.

Stock markets across the single currency area nosedived, too, with the blue-chip DAX 30 index in Frankfurt shedding more than 4.4 percent, the CAC-40 index in Paris down more than 3.6 percent, the IBEX-35 in Madrid plummeting 4.4 percent and the FTSE Mib index in Milan down 4.9 percent.

Stark, who joined the bank’s executive board in June 2006, “will stay on in his current position until a successor is appointed, which, according to the appointment procedure, will be by the end of this year,” the ECB statement said.

Stark, one of the most hawkish ECB members who was even recently dubbed a “Rottweiler” by a Greek newspaper, has been critical of the bank’s controversial programme of buying bonds of those countries – such as Greece – who find themselves unable to drum up financing by the markets.

The programme was put on hold until last month, when, according to a number of media reports, both Stark and Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann voted against its resumption.

On Thursday, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet hit out at German criticism of the programme.

The bank only embarked on such a programme “because the governments in question had not behaved properly,” the Frenchman said.

“I would very much like to hear congratulations for an institution which has delivered price stability in Germany over almost 13 years.” But the ECB statement made no mention of such differences.

Instead, it said Trichet thanked Stark “wholeheartedly for his outstanding contribution to European unity over many years.”

The ECB president expressed “particular gratitude for his exceptional and unwavering dedication as a member of the executive board and governing council for more than five years.”

ECB watchers, however, suggested Stark’s departure could point to deeper differences among EU and eurozone policy makers over the way out of the current debt crisis, especially as it was the second German resignation in Frankfurt in the past six months after Bundesbank President Axel Weber stepped down in February.

“It seems to confirm that there is a deep rift within the EU Council,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank.

The resignation “will feed the unwarranted suspicion in global markets that Germany may eventually withdraw from monetary union. As such, it will probably exacerbate market tensions for a while,” Schmieding said.

Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Belgium, said that following the resignation of Weber at the Bundesbank earlier this year, “the second very outspoken critic of the ECB’s bond purchasing programme is leaving the ship.”

He believed the term “personal reasons” was a cover for “a deep-rooted disappointment at work,” the analyst said. There is “clashing behind the scenes of the Eurotower.”

Nevertheless, once the immediate shock had worn off, Stark’s departure may not have a big impact on the ECB’s monetary policy in the longer run, Brzeski said.

“The ECB as an institution has internalised the stability orientation of the Bundesbank and is more than its individual members, he argued.

AFP/The Local/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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