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EUROPE

Rösler says financial transaction tax must apply to all EU members

German Economy Minister Philipp Rösler has shown the government’s hand on the subject of a financial transactions tax, saying he would only support one applied to all European Union countries, not just the eurozone.

Rösler says financial transaction tax must apply to all EU members
Photo: DPA

In what initially seemed to be a contradiction of Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s recent call for such a tax, he said he would only back it if it applied to all 27 European Union countries – not just the 17 members of the eurozone.

Rösler, whose Free Democratic Party is the junior coalition partner of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, threatened to withhold support of the plan.

“We would only give our agreement to a transaction tax, if at all, only if it was applied in all 27 EU countries,” he told the regional daily Stuttgarter Zeitung.

He said the eurozone countries should not be put at a disadvantage to other EU countries, several of which, most notably Britain, have said they would not implement such a tax.

The government has long included the concept of taxing finance transactions, with Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble even including €2 billion income in his medium term financial planning – from 2013.

Rösler said it was now the job of the finance ministers to develop a concept for all 27 EU member states, firmly handing responsibility to his CDU colleague, according to Der Spiegel.

The magazine said that there seemed to be little difference between his attitude and that of Merkel, saying that government insiders were signalling that the suggestion for the eurozone was intended to revive the debate of imposing the tax throughout the EU.

Gathering as many supporters for the concept within the eurozone would be the first stage in exerting pressure on other EU members, the magazine suggested.

Rösler has also recently clearly mapped out his party’s opposition to the idea of eurobonds, saying a meeting of the party’s leadership had ruled them out, and that he had communicated this to Merkel before her meeting with Sarkozy.

Sarkozy, who met with Merkel this week in Paris, told media later that “German and French finance ministers will put a joint proposition for a tax on financial transactions on the table of European institutions from next month.”

AFP/The Local/hc

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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