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VW shares tank despite stellar earnings

Volkswagen on Thursday posted more than three-fold leaps in net profit, but its shares were still hammered as some observers wondered if the stock of Europe's biggest car maker had peaked.

VW shares tank despite stellar earnings
Photo: DPA

VW’s second quarter net profit of €4.784 billion ($6.86 billion), up from €1.351 billion in the same period of 2010, dwarfed an average analyst forecast of around 2.5 percent compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.

It was accompanied by a first half net profit of €6.496 billion, up from €1.824 billion. But investors were clearly not impressed.

Shares in the auto giant plunged in midday trading on the Frankfurt stock exchange, losing 5.76 percent to €135.75 while the DAX index was down by 1.57 percent overall.

“Volkswagen’s results are very good,” NordLB auto analyst Franck Schwope told news agency AFP.

But the shares might have fallen, he said, because “some think the group is at a high point and cannot do any better.”

Schwope himself said he felt that VW, which wants to become the world’s biggest automaker by 2018, still had room to grow.

Meanwhile, second-quarter sales were 21.5 percent higher at almost €40.3 billion, and reached nearly 77.8 billion for the first half, VW said.

Chairman Martin Winterkorn said that “ongoing strong demand in strategically important markets is providing a tailwind” and that a large number of new models would help sustain results going forward.

VW currently owns nine brands of automobiles, ranging from luxury cars such as Audi, Bentley and Lamborghini to more affordable ones like Seat, Skoda and of course VW itself.

VW also owns controlling stakes in two truck makers, Scania and MAN, which it wants to merge into a heavy vehicle powerhouse.

But Winterkorn also cautioned that “the coming months will be challenging for us and will require us to work hard to maintain this high level.”

A statement said VW expected full-year 2011 deliveries to surpass the record 2010 level of 7.14 million, and that sales and operating profit would be “significantly higher than the previous year.” Those figures were €126.8 billion and 7.1 billion, respectively.

Second-quarter 2011 operating profit soared by 59.2 percent to €3.17 billion on a 14.6 percent rise in deliveries to 2.14 billion vehicles.

Winterkorn has already forecast that VW could sell eight million vehicles this year, thanks in large part to its strong position in major emerging markets.

The group put its net cash position on June 30 at €19.4 billion, a gain of 11.1 percent from the first half of 2010 despite investments in MAN, the Porsche Holding company and a stake in the auto-parts maker SG Carbon.

There are some clouds on the horizon however.

A plan to tie up with Suzuki to profit from its position in India has hit some bumps.

And there is still uncertainty over VW’s plans to merge with another Porsche company – the one that actually makes the iconic 911 sports cars.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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