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Merkel’s euro moment

After facing months of criticism over her lack of leadership during Europe’s debt crisis, Chancellor Merkel has decided defending the eurozone is in Germany’s best interest. The Local’s Marc Young analyses the implications.

Merkel's euro moment
Photo: DPA

Has Angela Merkel saved the euro?

That’s certainly how the German chancellor was presenting it after an emergency EU summit on Thursday forged yet another bailout package for heavily indebted Greece.

With the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis festering for months, Merkel has faced a barrage of criticism both at home and abroad for failing to lead Europe out of its worst economic crisis since the single currency was introduced 12 years ago. But many German commentators were cautiously optimistic on Friday that she had perhaps finally decided to grasp the nettle.

The latest rescue deal greatly stretches the timeframe for Greece to repay its debt while lowering the interest rate Athens will have to pay. Crucially for Merkel, it also includes a €50-billion contribution from private creditors – something Berlin had long demanded.

And although it also inches the eurozone closer to the transfer union the Germans had long hoped to avoid, Merkel had clearly realized that sitting on the sidelines was simply no longer an option.

Throughout the crisis, the financial markets have in succession battered Greece, Ireland and Portugal – all troubled but relatively small eurozone economies. But in recent weeks, speculators began to circle Italy, which threatened to bring down the entire 17-nation currency union.

Merkel knows that, as an exporting nation few countries have benefited from the euro as much as Germany. But she has hesitated until now to simply pick up the tab for more profligate European countries. But such dithering did neither Greece nor Merkel any good.

Just days ago the chancellor was playing down Thursday’s crisis summit, warning against expecting a breakthrough. At the same time a poll showed her approval rating with German voters hitting its lowest point in five years.

The impact of Merkel’s disengagement throughout the euro crisis has been remarkable: No other major economy is doing as well as Germany right now, but her centre-right coalition is also extremely unpopular. It has not profited at all from surging growth and falling unemployment.

Instead, her failure to make tough decisions has seen her pilloried for supposedly putting domestic political concerns before key foreign policy issues. Her former mentor Chancellor Helmut Kohl reportedly even claimed Merkel was “ruining” Europe.

But now it seems clear to everyone inside the Chancellery that Merkel’s political fate and the euro have become inextricably intertwined.

In saving the euro, Merkel saves herself.

After months of criticism, she appears to have got the message – and passed it along.

Phillip Rösler, Merkel’s vice chancellor and economy minister, is reportedly cobbling together an incentive plan to encourage German companies to help the battered Greek economy. Is decisive action Berlin’s new modus operandi?

Only time will tell, of course. This government has repeatedly failed to meet the rather low expectations set for it. But for the eurozone the change couldn’t have come a moment too soon.

Marc Young

[email protected]

twitter.com/marcyoung

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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