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EUROPE

ECB says Greek bond purchase plan plausible

The European Central Bank's German chief economist said Wednesday that a proposal for an EU rescue fund to buy Greek bonds might work but that markets would likely still feel Athens had defaulted on its debt.

ECB says Greek bond purchase plan plausible
Photo: DPA

Jürgen Stark told the financial daily Börsen-Zeitung in comments to appear Thursday that he “personally sees no risk of a credit event, or credit downgrade,” if the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bought Greek sovereign bonds on secondary markets.

A “credit event” would trigger the payment of insurance on sovereign bonds known as credit default swaps, meaning that markets considered Athens to have defaulted on some of its €350 billion ($500 billion) in debt.

Stark allowed however that market participants could well conclude a default had taken place if the EFSF bought Greek bonds, one idea that has been floated to reduce the pile of debt that many feel will never be fully repaid.

His comments were released a day before a summit in Brussels called to find ways of dealing with the Greek debt crisis, which threatens to spill over into the much larger eurozone economies of Italy and Spain.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were to meet later Wednesday in Berlin ahead of the summit to discuss possible remedies.

The ECB has warned repeatedly that a declaration of default would mean it could not accept Greek bonds as collateral against loans, which would likely cause the Greek banking sector – and perhaps others – to collapse.

ECB officials have urged eurozone political leaders to reinforce the EFSF and make it more “flexible,” meaning making it able to take over the ECB’s unwanted role of buyer of last resort for Greek bonds.

Deutsche Bank economist Gilles Moec noted that the EFSF could raise money to lend to Athens to buy back its own bonds at discounted prices and cancel them, thus reducing its debt load somewhat.

Moec said that that “can hardly be a silver bullet, as bond prices are likely to rise sharply in response to such an announcement, but that would be a sign that the Europeans are taking the long term debt sustainability issue seriously.”

The economist warned however that substantially increasing the EFSF’s size to deal with other problems “would be a mistake, as it could jeopardize the AAA (ratings) status of some of the core countries, France in particular, which in term would entail a complete collapse of the rescue system.”

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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